Abortion has overtaken immigration to become the second most important issue, behind the economy, for voters heading into the 2024 election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, Newsweek polling suggests.
The race to the White House is neck and neck and may ultimately come down to just a few thousand votes in key battleground states like Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona. So, to understand voters' greatest concerns, over the past 16 months polls conducted exclusively by Redfield & Wilton Strategies on behalf of Newsweek asked participants: "Which issues are most likely to determine how you vote in the November 2024 Presidential Election? You may select up to three." The issues that repeatedly came out on top were the economy, abortion and immigration, making candidates' signaling on these concerns crucial to success come election day.
"In such a highly contested political context, neither candidate can afford to yield ground on any issue—whether the economy, reproductive rights, immigration, democracy or the rule of law," Cary Coglianese, a political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania, told Newsweek.
The top-ranking issue in every survey we conducted was the economy. Beyond that, abortion was the issue that saw the biggest jump, rising 17 percentage points from the first poll in July 2023 (21 percent) to the latest in October 2024 (38 percent). In four of the past five months, it was selected more than immigration. As fighting continues in Gaza and Ukraine, foreign policy and defense has held steady around 14 percent. Altogether, 19 polls were conducted, cumulatively asking 34,800 eligible voters about the key issues of the 2024 election.
Here are five areas of concern that could affect who ends up in the Oval Office.
The Economy
More than three-quarters of Donald Trump supporters said the economy is heading in the wrong direction, which experts believe could cost Kamala Harris come election day. Despite inflation easing and interest rates starting to come down, polling for Newsweek as of October found 79 percent of voters who lean Republican were down on the economy—the same as a September 2023 poll revealed—as opposed to only 23 percent of Democrat-leaning voters, a decrease of 16 percentage points from that same poll.
The percentage of Democratic voters who believe they are better off now than three years ago has risen, from 33 percent in September 2023 to 43 percent in October 2024. However, Republicans said they are worse off now under the Biden-Harris government than they were before. In July 2023, 66 percent of Trump voters said they were worse off than in July 2020, when Trump was president. This has since jumped 10 points to 76 percent in October of this year.
During the 1980 presidential race, Ronald Reagan, when challenging incumbent Jimmy Carter, asked the question: "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" And it is this same question that could cost Harris at the polls, Philip van Scheltinga, director of research at Redfield & Wilton, told Newsweek.
"The 2020 election was very much a referendum on Donald Trump, with 'not Trump' winning by a narrow margin. Now, four years later, Americans have experienced what 'not Trump' is, regardless of whether it was [President Joe] Biden or Harris, and they can properly compare the two experiences. While polls are showing a tight race between Harris and Trump, the polls are clear on the Reagan question: Americans largely do feel worse off than they did a few years ago, and they do see Bidenomics as a failure."
Dr. Keith Gaddie, professor of political science at Texas Christian University, agreed that success for Harris could be dependent on whether voters blame incumbent Biden for their economic troubles and if she, as vice president, will be tarred with the same brush. "The question mark for Harris is whether, among those who say the economy is headed in the wrong direction, do they ascribe blame to Biden?" Gaddie told Newsweek.
Across all age and voter groups, in July 2023, 47 percent of Americans said they were worse off than they were in July 2020. When polled in October, 48 percent still said they have less money than they did three years prior, a rise of 1 percentage point. Those who said they are doing better fell from 28 percent to 25 percent in the same period, while those doing the same rose 3 points to 27 percent.
"While wages have mostly kept pace with inflation, the persistent increases in the cost of essentials like housing, food and transportation have made it difficult for people to adjust," economist Sam Kuhn told Newsweek. "Even as inflation slows, the elevated price levels continue to erode purchasing power, making it harder for many to maintain their previous standard of living." —Aliss Higham
Abortion
Vice President Kamala Harris' focus on abortion rights in her campaign for the White House could help her win, experts and polling suggest. More than half of the voters we polled (53 percent) said they lean toward the Democratic position on abortion, compared with 36 percent who favor the Republican stance. Some 33 percent said they now "strongly lean" Democrat on the issue, up from 28 percent in July last year. A smaller percentage said they "strongly lean" Republican, but those numbers also increased, up from 14 percent in July 2023 to 16 percent in October.
The rise in those leaning Democrat has been largely due to women—from 51 percent just before Harris entered the race in July to 55 percent in October, and up from 48 percent in July last year. About 32 percent of women said they lean Republican, a figure that has remained steady since Harris entered the race.
The findings suggest Harris' strategy of focusing on abortion rights could prove a winning one in a tight race against Donald Trump. Her messaging has "reached pro-choice Americans who started paying closer attention to the campaign over the past few months," Paul Goren, a professor of political science at the University of Minnesota, told Newsweek. "When these voters learn of Harris' support for abortion rights, they naturally conclude that the Democratic Party's position is closer to their own position. Since a majority of Americans favor abortion rights in most or all situations, it makes sense that the share of people who say they 'strongly lean' toward the Democratic position would rise. The gender gap—in which women favor Harris over Trump by roughly 15 percent—may augment this trend."
The increase of those strongly leaning Democrat on abortion "reflects a deepening of political polarization, which is what we've seen in recent years," according to Craig Agranoff, an adjunct professor of political marketing at Florida Atlantic University.
"Those who align with the Democratic view, often advocating for broader access to abortion, appear to feel a stronger need to assert their stance as states enact more restrictive measures. This strong lean growth suggests that the issue is becoming not just one of policy preference but one of identity for many voters," Agranoff told Newsweek.
Wendy Schiller, a political science professor at Brown University, said the issue of abortion could decide the election "precisely because it is so close."
Harris has repeatedly attacked Trump for the U.S. Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization that overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, ending the national right to abortion. She has warned that a second Trump term would lead to a further erosion of reproductive rights and has vowed to sign into law a bill restoring national abortion rights if she wins the presidency.
Trump had taken credit for appointing the justices who overturned Roe but has sought to take a more cautious stance on abortion since it has become an election vulnerability for Republicans. He has repeatedly said abortion should be left to the states and more recently said he would veto a national abortion ban in a second term after previously declining to do so. —Khaleda Rahman
Immigration
Kamala Harris has taken a harder line on immigration in her election battle with Donald Trump as Democrat-leaning voters have expressed serious concerns about the issue. Polling for Newsweek showed that support among Democrats for a more hard-line approach, including Joe Biden and Harris supporters, was 53 percent in October, softening slightly from 54 percent in July 2023. The percentage of Trump supporters who backed stricter policies over the same time period rose from 79 percent to 87 percent. Philip van Scheltinga, of Redfield & Wilton Strategies, told Newsweek: "When even Democratic voters are overwhelmingly unhappy with the situation as it has developed, then it is time for the Democratic Party to revisit their position."
The vice president has supported comprehensive immigration reform, which aims to provide pathways to citizenship, and has been a strong advocate for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, which protects young immigrants who came to the U.S.
Harris has been critical of policies from the Trump era, like family separations and the border wall. She also pledged to revive the failed bipartisan border security bill, which was defeated in May this year, if elected.
In the face of public criticism for her ineffectiveness on migrant policy at the start of Biden's presidency as the "Border Czar" and to polling, Harris is under pressure to address the electorate's concerns about illegal immigration.
The polling results showed voters trust Trump over her on the key policy matter, Julia Gelatt, associate director of the U.S. Immigration Policy Program at the Migration Policy Institute, told Newsweek.
"Images of chaos at the border, high numbers of border arrivals and the very visible challenges that major cities have faced in meeting the needs of newly arriving migrants have all affected public opinion on immigration," Gelatt said.
Gelatt argued that Harris has adopted a more conservative stance on the issue to increase support among voters who want a crackdown. Harris has pledged to close the border between ports of entry to reduce illegal crossings. She also said she will make it harder to lift these measures by requiring a longer period of reduced border crossings before ending the shutdown. She pledged that anyone who crosses the border illegally is apprehended, deported and prohibited from reentering for five years. Repeat violators will face felony prosecution.
"Harris seems to be hoping that a focus on the need for more border enforcement will help her win the trust of voters," Gelatt said.
Trump, meanwhile, has threatened to deport as many as 20 million people who he said are undocumented migrants if he becomes president.
However, Bradford Jones, a professor of political science at University of California, Davis, told Newsweek that the need for "hard-line action" would have been addressed if the bipartisan border security bill had passed. "If someone comes to believe some variation of the theme that undocumented immigrants pose an existential threat to Americans, they are very likely to agree that a hard-line, punitive approach needs to be taken," Jones said.
"Ironically, both the claims about an 'uncontrollable border' and the need for 'hard-line action' would have been addressed in the bipartisan legislation proposed in Congress earlier this year.
"Because Trump relies on these narratives to fuel the campaign, he was highly incentivized to get that bill killed. He succeeded and, at least up until now, is winning on the immigration issue." —Billal Rahman
Ukraine
Almost three years into the Russia-Ukraine war, polling has suggested a decline in support for contributions to aid efforts to Ukraine among Donald Trump supporters. Given the Democrats and Republicans have polar-opposite views on the U.S. approach, this issue could swing votes.
Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, the U.S. has been the biggest contributor of military aid for Kyiv, with Congress voting through five bills worth $175 billion. And while 34 percent of all respondents believed the U.S. should continue its support for Kyiv "until Ukraine wins the war," this figure was down five points from March.
Our October poll showed that 16 percent of all respondents wanted U.S. support to stop—a 2-point increase from 14 percent in August. And one-quarter of likely Trump voters believed U.S. support should stop now. Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris said Ukraine would need to be part of any U.S. negotiation to end the conflict and has suggested that she would continue President Joe Biden's support for Kyiv.
However, this backing for Kyiv has been a sticking point for Republican presidential candidate Trump, who opposes continued aid for Ukraine and has criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for not doing a deal to end the fighting. "Americans' views on international conflict and war vary according to a number of variables, including partisan identification, race, gender, ethnicity and generation," said Dan Caldwell, professor of political science emeritus at Pepperdine University, California.
As the war continues, support among Democrat voters for the U.S. to keep its backing until Ukraine wins has increased from 47 percent in July 2023 to 53 percent in October. For Trump voters, in October it was only 21 percent, down from 29 percent in July 2023. "The candidates have been consistent in their rhetoric about Ukraine," said Robert Orttung, research professor of international affairs at the George Washington University.
"Harris strongly supports Ukraine and the administration's efforts to ensure that Russia does not win there," he told Newsweek.
"Trump and [running mate] JD Vance have made clear their lack of enthusiasm for the Ukraine effort and indicated that they would settle the war on Putin's terms," Orttung said. "Most Americans understand the stakes here, in particular that a Ukrainian defeat would pose a real threat to Europe and American interests on that continent."
In the most recent poll in October, men were more supportive of Ukraine (40 percent) than women (29 percent), while a plurality (43 percent) of voters aged 59 and older held that view. Fewer Generation Z and millennial voters backed Washington maintaining support for Kyiv, at 31 percent and 30 percent respectively.
"Millennials and Gen Z members are less likely to support sending economic and military aid to Ukraine than the Silent and baby boomer generations," Caldwell told Newsweek. "That said, political orientation is the strongest predictor of attitudes toward Ukraine, and this is starkly evident in the positions of each presidential candidate." —Brendan Cole
Israel
Younger American voters are more likely to want an end to U.S. support for Israel in its war against Hamas, exclusive polling for Newsweek has revealed, which could prove pivotal to election outcomes in swing states. A year on from the October 7 Hamas attacks on southern Israel, in which 1,200 people were killed and at least 250 taken hostage, there is no end in sight to the war in Gaza, where more than 42,000 people have been killed according to the Gaza health ministry.
Newsweek polling revealed those aged between 18 and 26, known as Generation Z, were the most skeptical of Washington's backing for its Middle Eastern ally. Some 16 percent of voters in this age group believed the U.S. should stop its support for Israel now, compared with 8 percent of baby boomers and the Silent Generation—those aged over 59.
"Political consultants often tend to dismiss the youth vote. What they should be concerned about is not just do people turn out and vote on Election Day, but [also] do these people show up and help get out the vote?" Matt Duss, executive vice-president at the Washington, D.C.-based Center for International Policy, said. "Young people disproportionately do a lot of that volunteer work."
But that sentiment about the war is not universal. In fact, across all respondents, 34 percent agreed that American support should continue "until Israel wins the war." This was an increase from the previously highest figure, recorded in August, of 33 percent although roughly in line with opinion since polling on the issue started.
When divided by political affiliation, the latest poll also found 27 percent of Harris supporters of all ages agreed with continued U.S. support for Israel until it wins, a level which has remained relatively unchanged since she entered the presidential race. More Trump supporters—45 percent—held that view in October, although this was down from 46 percent in the August poll.
However, nearly half—44 percent—of Harris supporters said in October that backing for Israel should be "reconsidered." Some 12 percent of her voters said that support should stop now—compared with 28 percent and 14 percent respectively for Trump supporters.
"The Democrats are torn," Andrew Latham, professor of international relations at Macalester College in Saint Paul, Minnesota, told Newsweek.
This is because he believes the party is both trying to maintain Israel can defend itself while arguing this is limited by the humanitarian need for a ceasefire and the geopolitical urgency for de-escalation. Democrats also must accommodate the more pro-Palestinian wing of the Democrat base, he said.
"The Republicans, on the other hand, have been free to make the less qualified case that Israel has every right to defend itself—no matter the escalatory risks," Latham said.
The war may not be a defining issue for the presidential election campaign ahead of November 5, Latham added, "but it has been differentiating." —Brendan Cole
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Aliss Higham , Brendan Cole , Khaleda Rahman AND Billal Rahman
Aliss Higham is a Newsweek reporter based in Glasgow, Scotland. Her focus is reporting on issues across the U.S., including ...
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