Chiefs HC Andy Reid Makes Unexpected Admission About Bills Matchup

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Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid paid the Buffalo Bills an enormous compliment ahead of the AFC Championship.

Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is always respectful of his opponents, especially when it’s an organization that’s been as consistent as the Buffalo Bills in recent seasons.

Having said that, rarely does Reid ever acknowledge that his team might not be the favorite going into a matchup, and that goes double for a home game after a 15-2 campaign and two straight Super Bowl titles.

“Well, the fact that we’re at home is a real positive,” Reid noted on January 20, when asked about the upcoming rematch with the Bills. “We’ve got to play well… Whether we’re favored or not favored, I don’t know — I presume they’ll probably be favored but that’s alright. We do our thing as we go into this, and we don’t worry about all that noise.”

To be clear, Buffalo is not currently favored on FanDuel Sportsbook. The AFC Championship has a line of “Chiefs -1.5” and moneyline odds of -126 for Kansas City as of January 20 at 2 p.m. (EST).

And yet, Reid just admitted that this Bills team might actually deserve to enter as the favorites at Arrowhead Stadium.

It’s the highest form of flattery Reid can give — better than any compliment-filled opening statement or praise. Perhaps, it was an uncommon slip of the tongue from the veteran HC, or maybe he was attempting to motivate his own team — but that’s not really Reid’s style.

The Bills were the only team to defeat the Chiefs’ starters in 2024, but they did so in Buffalo. KC has also had this team’s number in the postseason under the tenures of Reid and opposing head coach Sean McDermott, winning each of their three recent playoff matchups.

“It’s a high level of football,” Reid explained, regarding Chiefs-Bills. “And you’ve got to handle it that way.”

Bills Given 50.7% Odds Over Chiefs According to Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor

No matter who’s technically the “favorite,” this has the look of a razor-thin face-off between two AFC franchises that know each other very well.

Pro Football Network’s NFL Playoff Predictor tool actually has the Bills getting the slight advantage, as Reid presumed. Buffalo has a 50.7% chance of upsetting the Chiefs and moving on to the Super Bowl, according to PFN’s tool, while Kansas City only has a 49.3% chance.

By comparison, the other championship game is much more heavily slanted in favor of the home team as the Philadelphia Eagles were given a 61.8% chance of defeating the Washington Commanders.

Chiefs Playoff Trends & Insights, Courtesy of Pro Football Network

Pro Football Network also shared several playoff trends and insights with Heavy on Chiefs, and KC is rising the all-time leaderboard in a couple of areas.

The Chiefs are now one behind the New England Patriots for “most consecutive conference championship appearances,” at seven straight appearances. The Patriots’ record finished with eight straight from 2011 through 2018.

Similarly, Reid is now one behind Bill Belichick for most total conference championship appearances as a head coach, with 12. Belichick accumulated 13 throughout his NFL coaching career.

As for other playoff trends, PFN relayed that “[Chiefs quarterback] Patrick Mahomes has thrown a total of three touchdown passes in his last two Championship Games (3.7% of his attempts), compared to three in each of his first four appearances (8.4%)” — as Kansas City has shifted into more of a defensive approach.

Speaking of the KC defense, they’ll certainly have their hands full facing Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense.

“The Bills have scored on at least 55% of their possessions in six games this season, with four of those coming against playoff teams,” PFN relayed. They also noted that “Allen has completed over 72% of his passes in both playoff victories, matching his total of three such games during the regular season.”