Christmas Box Office: ‘Sonic 3’ Tracking to Open Ahead of Lion King Prequel ‘Mufasa’

Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King has its work cut out for it.

As it stands now, Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is tracking to open to $55 million over the Dec. 20-22 weekend, compared to $50 million for Mufasa: The Lion King, according to sources with access to data from leading research firm National Research Group.

It would be an upset if Sonic succeeded in beating Mufasa, considering that the summer 2019 remake The Lion King opened to a stunning $191.8 million domestically on its way to earning $1.7 billion globally. Like that film, Mufasa is a live-action movie relying heavily on photorealistic imagery.

Many doubted whether the 2019 film, directed by Jon Favreau, would work, similar to the conversation now swirling about Mufasa.

Disney has held off making its major marketing push until after Thanksgiving, and is counting on tracking to steadily increase in the coming days. The final push includes playing a trailer of the film before Moana 2, which opened Wednesday and is off to a record-breaking start.

Paramount likewise says it has only spent 5 percent of its marketing budget on Sonic 3, and is waiting for Thanksgiving to be over. (The studio is also home of Thanksgiving offering Gladiator II.)

Directed by Barry Jenkins, the music-infused Mufasa sees Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, John Kani and Beyoncé Knowles reprise their roles from the 2019 film. Newcomers include Aaron Pierre, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Thandiwe Newton, Lenni James, Anika Noni rose and Blue Ivy Carter in her feature film debut. Lin-Manuel Miranda wrote the film’s songs.

The origin story follows the adventures of two young lions, Mufasa and Taka, who become fast friends after Mufasa is orphaned and adopted by Taka’s royal family. Mufasa ultimately becomes the king of the Pride Lands and father of Simba, while Taka takes a more sinister turn and becomes known as Scar.  

Sonic, a live-action/CGI hybrid based on the Sega video game, has been a goldmine for Paramount, and a major success story. The first Sonic the Hedgehog movie opened well ahead of expectations with a $58 million domestic debut in February 2020, a month before the pandemic shut down theaters. That was followed by a $72.1 million domestic opening in March 2022. While Sonic titles skew male, the sequel saw robust family business, meaning Sonic 3 could pose direct competition for Mufasa.

The latest installment in the Sonic franchise introduces Keanu Reeves as popular video game character Shadow. He’s dark and edgy but has similar powers to the heroic hedgehog. The threequel finds franchise antagonist Dr. Robotnik (Jim Carrey) depressed and out of shape. He gets back in the saddle thanks to creating Shadow to take down Sonic, voiced by Ben Schwartz.

Mufasa and Sonic anchor the Christmas calendar this year. As always, films opening the weekend before Christmas aren’t known for their huge openings, since many moviegoers are otherwise occupied with final holiday preparations. Rather, Hollywood studios count on bigger-than-usual multiples with kids out of school and adults off of work during the year-end holidays.