College Football Week 13 Best Bets: Penn State to Cover vs. Minnesota?

College Football Week 13 Best Bets

Our college football Week 13 best bets start with a roll of the dice on No. 4* Penn State to handle Minnesota on the road (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS).

Elsewhere, we like No. 3 Texas to win big against a struggling Kentucky offense and No. 21 Arizona State to stay hot vs. No. 14 BYU following an impressive road win over Kansas State.

*Note: all rankings come from the Week 13 CFP poll.

How to Bet Penn State (-11) vs. Minnesota

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

There's no denying that the Nittany Lions (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten) have had their issues against elite opponents, especially Ohio State and Michigan, the last couple years.

Against just about everyone else, though, coach James Franklin, QB Drew Allar and PSU have been as trustworthy as it gets in this sport, with a record of 7-1 against the spread as road favorites the last two years.

Since an offensive no-show in a loss to Ohio State in early November, PSU's ability to manhandle average-or-worse teams has been on full display the last two weeks. Allar and the outstanding Penn State D notched a 35-6 home win over Washington in Week 11 and a 49-10 beatdown of Purdue on the road last Saturday.

This team survived a couple of close calls early this year vs. Bowling Green and USC, but seven of its nine wins have come by at least two touchdowns. Tight wins were also few and far between for the Nittany Lions last year, when they went 10-2, with nine victories by at least 17 points (including five conference wins by 21 points or more).

Minnesota (6-4, 4-3 Big Ten) boasts wins over USC and Illinois, but the Gophers have also lost four games to North Carolina, Iowa, Michigan and Rutgers.

We don't expect the Minnesota offense, which is averaging just 26.7 points per game and is ranked No. 81 by ESPN's SP+, to score enough to hang with the Nittany Lions, especially not in a game the visitors need to win big to ensure they end up hosting a first-round College Football Playoff game.

We're counting on Franklin -- who has done just about everything but reach the CFP in his Penn State tenure, and now has a playoff berth well within reach -- to keep his team locked in against both Minnesota this Saturday and Maryland at home in next weekend's regular season finale.

Penn State vs. Minnesota best bets:

• Penn State -11 (-112 at DraftKings) 1 unit
• Minnesota Team Total Under 14.5 (+114 at FanDuel) 0.50 units

How to Bet Texas (-20.5) vs. Kentucky

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN+)

The Longhorns (9-1, 5-1 SEC) have not exactly looked invincible over the last four weeks. Since their 30-15 loss to Georgia, Texas let Vanderbilt hang around in an eventual 27-24 win on Oct. 26, then blew out Florida 49-17 on Nov. 9. But Texas struggled with Arkansas last Saturday for three quarters before winning that one 20-10.

With that in mind, trusting Texas to beat Kentucky by at least 21 feels like a big swing, especially given how close the Wildcats' losses to Georgia (13-12) and Tennessee (28-18) were, not to mention UK's 20-17 upset win over Ole Miss in Oxford.

But Kentucky (4-6, 1-6) has struggled to score this year, and that's putting it lightly. Mark Stoops' team has scored 20 points or more just once in SEC play this year, and that was in a 48-20 loss to Florida.

Texas has suffocated bad offenses all season, which is a big reason why it's No. 4 in the nation in scoring defense (11.4 points per game allowed) and No. 2 according to SP+. Against a Kentucky O that is No. 108 in the nation in points per game at just 22.1 ppg (and No. 68 by SP+), it's easy see Texas covering, even if it only scores around 30-35 points.

Texas vs. Kentucky best bets:

• Texas -20.5 (-110 at bet365) 1 unit

How to Bet BYU vs. Arizona State (-3)

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Staying in the 3:30 p.m. window for what we expect to be the most competitive of these three games, let's wrap up with a pivotal Big 12 battle in Tempe, Arizona.

Under 34-year-old head coach Kenny Dillingham, the Sun Devils are already one of the stories of the season, even if they fail to reach the conference championship game in a couple weeks.

ASU (8-2, 5-2 Big 12) -- which went 3-9 (2-7 Big 12) a year ago -- has blown preseason expectations out of the water in Year 2 under Dillingham thanks to the underrated duo of QB Sam Leavitt and RB Cam Skattebo.

Leavitt has been steady (1,906 yards passing, 17 TDs, and 4 interceptions) through the air and has added 348 rushing yards and four TDs. Skattebo (1,074 yards rushing and 11 TDs on 5.4 yards per carry, plus 448 more yards and 2 TDs as a receiver) is a likely first-team All-Pac 12 selection, and now is the time to check him out if you haven't watched him yet.

The scary thing for BYU is that ASU took down Kansas State in Manhattan last Saturday night despite a solid job of containing Skattebo by the Wildcats.

BYU entered last Saturday night in the driver's seat in this conference, but was upset at home by Kansas, which held the Cougars to just 13 points.

BYU has gone 4-1 in one-score games this year. However, in what we expect to be another close game in Tempe, we're going with a Sun Devils squad that has won five of its last six and jumped out to a 21-0 halftime lead in its upset win over a good K-State team last Saturday.

BYU vs. Arizona State best bets:

• Arizona State -3 (-110 at DraftKings) 1 unit

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