As we all know, college football can be a wild sport when it comes to underdogs winning outright.
Wisconsin, for example, was almost able to pull off a monster upset last week against Oregon, only to fall short in the end, but it was there for the taking. It can be fun (and very profitable) to correctly call your shot on underdogs keeping the game close, or even winning outright in college football.
So, with that thought in mind, here are the best NCAAF Week 13 upset predictions.
Rutgers Moneyline (+100) Fanatics
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights, 12 p.m. ET
This play on Rutgers is admittedly as light as an underdog can go being priced at +100, but they are still considered underdogs, so it counts for our purposes, and this is a spot where we like them to win straight up.
Rutgers is the home team here, and it is always fun to back the home 'dogs, especially in college.
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In general, teams that have the capability of dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball will have a great chance of winning any game, regardless of other circumstances.
We have seen, time and time again, teams unable to generate any movement on the offensive and defensive line struggle in matchups where they might have more talent across the board, and that is what we are expecting to happen in this matchup.
Illinois has struggled with their OL and DL play all season, and this figures to be the biggest advantage in favor of Rutgers, which is a massive one.
Rutgers has the 31st-ranked pass rush in college football, per PFF, and Illinois QB Luke Altmeyer really struggles when he is under pressure.
On the other side of the ball, Illinois ranks 107th in the nation in EPA (expected points added) rush defense, which could allow Rutgers RB Kyle Monangai to have a big day on the ground.
Rutgers gets the job done in this one.
Rutgers moneyline (+100): 1 Unit
Boston College +3 (-108) DraftKings
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Boston College Eagles, 12 p.m. ET
For our second underdog prediction of the slate, let's ride with a team that we do not quite expect to win straight up, but we definitely love Boston College to cover the field goal spread against UNC.
UNC has admittedly turned things around after a rough start to the season, but they struggled on the road earlier this season, and BC is a much better team in front of its home crowd.
For context, Boston College is 4-1 at home this season, and the Eagles have scored 27 or more points in each of their last two home games. Last week, BC came close to upsetting No. 14 SMU on the road.
The biggest test for the Eagles is going to be how they fare against stud UNC RB Omarion Hampton, who is the focal point of the Tar Heels offense, but Boston College has a decent run defense.
BC has only allowed 20.2 points per game at home, and it is limiting opponents to 3 yards per carry. If the Eagles can stop the run, they can take advantage of a weak passing attack from UNC.
On the other side of the ball, Boston College QB Grayson James has looked phenomenal recently, and BC put up an impressive offensive performance last week against an SMU team with a much better D than the UNC defense it will see this week.
BC put up 417 total yards in the loss to SMU last week while rushing for 180. Boston College is definitely capable of winning this one outright as well, but we feel safer being able to get the three points, which is what we'll ride with here.
Boston College +3 (-108): 1 Unit
Mississippi State +7.5 (-106) FanDuel
Missouri Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs, 4:15 p.m. ET
Backing Mississippi State definitely feels gross, but this is more of a play on the number, getting over a touchdown spread against a Missouri team that should not be getting this much respect in the betting markets.
Keep in mind that Mizzou is yet to beat a Power Four team by more than a touchdown this entire season. Their biggest win of the season against one of these teams was a 30-23 victory over Oklahoma at home.
The Tigers have lost all three road games this year, granted against much higher competition, but 0-3 on the road is still 0-3. They are also dealing with some injury concerns with their QB Brady Cook, who has been banged up for a month now, and gutted through an injury last week against South Carolina.
Mississippi State, meanwhile, has been playing better recently under first year head coach Jeff Lebby, and it has had a bye week to prepare for this home contest against Missouri.
The Bulldogs keep this one close, covering the spread of over a touchdown.
Mississippi State +7.5 (-106): 1 Unit
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