Week 9 of the 2024 college football season has already delivered one of the biggest upsets in recent memory -- on a Wednesday night, no less!
Undefeated Liberty traveled to Kennesaw, Georgia, on Wednesday as 27.5-point favorites over Kennesaw State, but lost to the previously winless Owls, 27-24.
That shocking loss not only snapped a 17-game regular-season winning streak by Liberty, but also eliminated the Flames -- who entered this season as a contender to represent the Group of Five in the 12-team College Football Playoff -- from playoff contention.
Starting with No. 17 Boise State (which is currently EVEN at DraftKings to make the CFP) vs. UNLV (CFP odds at DK entering Week 9: +700) at 10:30 p.m. ET on Friday, Week 9 features a number of tricky matchups for highly ranked favorites with a lot to lose.
In addition to Friday night's pivotal Mountain West battle at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, other college football Week 9 games with major upset potential include:
- No. 12 Notre Dame vs. No. 24 Navy -- 12 p.m. ET, ABC (at MetLife Stadium)
- No. 20 Illinois at No. 1 Oregon -- 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
- No. 5 Texas at No. 25 Vanderbilt -- 4:15 p.m. ET, SEC Network
- No. 3 Penn State at Wisconsin -- 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock
Navy +14 (-110) bet365
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Navy Midshipmen
Should we trust the Irish to beat a solid team like Navy at a neutral venue?
Yes. Despite Notre Dame's inexplicable Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois, which is now 4-3 (1-2 MAC), the Irish are good enough defensively to survive a tricky matchup against the Midshipmen.
The question is whether Notre Dame can win this one convincingly.
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Navy is currently ranked in the AP top 25 for the first time since 2019, and while its offense is as potent as ever on the ground, it's also much more dangerous through the air this year.
That is thanks to star quarterback Blake Horvath, who averages nearly 8 yards per carry, but also has shown he can beat defenses with his arm, with 10 TD passes in just 72 attempts on the season. Notre Dame is by far the toughest opponent Navy has faced this year, but coach Brian Newberry's team does boast an impressive win over 6-1 Memphis.
Backing Navy to cover as heavy underdogs here is less about doubting Notre Dame --the Irish have gotten better as the season has gone along, and coordinator Al Golden's defense is outstanding -- but because we expect this to be a low-possession contest in which Horvath makes just enough plays to keep the score respectable.
Navy +14 (-110): 1 unit
BYU Moneyline (+115) bet365
BYU Cougars vs. UCF Knights, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The most puzzling line of the week has to be BYU vs. UCF. The Cougars are 7-0 (4-0 Big 12), while UCF is just 3-4 (1-3 Big 12), but UCF is a slight favorite at home (-2.5).
The Knights getting respect makes sense on one hand given that they nearly beat No. 10 Iowa State last Saturday. But BYU is underrated despite its current No. 11 ranking. The Cougars have already notched quality wins over SMU (6-1, 3-0 ACC) and No. 16 Kansas State (6-1, 3-1 Big 12) this year, and they scored 79 points the last two weeks in wins over Arizona and Oklahoma State.
BYU is allowing just 19 points per game, and QB Jake Retzlaff has thrown for at least two touchdowns in six of seven games this year, which is enough for me to trust the Cougars against a UCF team whose best win to date this season was an 18-point second-half comeback victory over TCU back in September.
BYU moneyline (+115): 1 unit
LSU Moneyline (-104) FanDuel
LSU Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
Neither No. 8 LSU nor No. 14 Texas A&M entered the season as a top favorite in the SEC. Both these schools entered the 2024 campaign behind Texas, Georgia, Ole Miss and Alabama in preseason odds. In fact, in the SEC's preseason media poll, the Tigers were picked to finish fifth and the Aggies 10th.
But both the Tigers (6-1, 3-0 SEC) and the Aggies (6-1, 4-0 SEC) have recovered after losses in Week 1, to USC and Notre Dame, respectively. Over the last two weeks, no one has played better than Brian Kelly's LSU team, which beat Ole Miss 29-26 and Arkansas 34-10 as QB Garrett Nussmeier has emerged as the latest star QB on the Bayou.
A&M is the only 4-0 team in the league after taking down Florida, Arkansas, Missouri and Mississippi State, with three of those wins coming by double-digits.
With Conner Weigman back under center the last two weeks, the Aggies have scored a total of 75 points on Mizzou and Miss. State. On the year, though, Weigman has just three touchdowns and four interceptions, and he has struggled in two of his four starts.
He turned in a disastrous performance (12-of-30 for 100 yards, 0 TDs and 2 picks) in the season-opening 23-13 home loss to Notre Dame. His play against the Bulldogs last Saturday also left plenty to be desired (15-for-25 for 217 yards, 1 TD, 2 interceptions).
It's a trite cliche at this point, but it that gets run into the ground for good reason: in evenly matched contests like this one (LSU is No. 11 and A&M is No. 14, according to ESPN's SP+), the better quarterback's team almost always wins.
With that in mind, we'll take Nussmeier and the Tigers to emerge from a tough battle at Kyle Field as the last remaining undefeated team in the SEC.
LSU moneyline (-104): 1 unit
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