Could the US Housing Market See a 'Trump Bump' in 2025?

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The housing market could see a "Trump bump" next year if the president-elect goes ahead with some of his proposed policies, according to a new forecast for 2025 by realtor.com.

The analysis predicted that next year's housing market could experience a boost for the better if Donald Trump brings in his proposals to make more federal land available for homebuilding and addressing regulation.

Regulation typically makes up almost 24 percent of a house's cost, according to a study by the National Association of House Builders, which comes to around $90,000 for the average home in America.

If Trump implemented his proposals on homebuilding and regulation, the realtors.com forecast predicted that it would help to increase the supply of houses.

Donald Trump
Donald Trump, the president-elect of the U.S. A real estate website has predicted that there could be a "Trump bump" in the housing market next year. Jim Watson/GDA via AP

Danielle Hale, a chief economist at realtor.com, commented on the forecast: "The size and direction of a 'Trump bump' will depend on what campaign proposals ultimately become policy and when."

"For now, we expect a gradual improvement in housing market dynamics powered by broader economic factors. The new administration's policies have the potential to enhance or hamper the housing recovery, and the details will matter," she added.

The economist also said that while Trump "can work quickly with his administration to implement some regulatory changes, other policies that will affect housing, such as tax changes and broad deregulation, require the cooperation of other branches and levels of government."

Newsweek has contacted the Trump administration via email for comment.

Outside of politics, realtor.com also predicted that next year will bring the most "balanced" housing market in nine years.

The outlet thought that house prices would grow by 3.7 percent, continuing growth trends since 2012, while rents would remain about the same, with a slight drop by 0.1 percent.

It was also believed by the outlet that mortgage rates would be 6.3 percent, and edge down throughout the course of 2025 to hit 0.1 percent less by the end of the year.

Existing home inventory would also continue to increase, following a trend from 2024, and single family new home starts would grow by almost 14 percent, reaching 1.1 million homes, according to the forecast.

This figure has not been hit since 2006, marking an "impressive" growth, according to realtor.com.

It was also forecasted by the outlet that home sales will grow by more than 1.5 percent over the year to reach around 4 million.

Months' supply, which is a key market balance indicator, is expected to improve from a 3.7 month average in 2024 to 4.1 in 2025.

The outlet added that anything under 4 is typically considered a "seller's market," while anything between 4 to 6 is typically viewed as a "balanced market."

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