Democratic Representatives Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill, who are running in New Jersey's gubernatorial race, both opposed a bill passed by the House today that would prohibit transgender athletes from participating in women's sports. Political experts told Newsweek their vote may come back to haunt the candidates when they need to win over independent voters this fall in the increasingly purplish Garden State.
Why It Matters
New Jersey's gubernatorial race will be one of the first tests for Democrats' messaging after the 2024 election. It was one of the states that had the starkest rightward shifts in the country, with Republicans making inroads with key groups like Hispanic, Asian-American and young voters who traditionally voted for Democrats in the past.
In the presidential race, New Jersey backed Vice President Kamala Harris by less than six points, Democrats' worst showing in the state this century, leading to questions about whether Jersey — with its bedroom communities and sprawling New York and Philadelphia suburbs — is emerging as a new swing state.
Gottheimer and Sherrill are two of the high-profile Democrats in the crowded race to replace outgoing Governor Phil Murphy, a Democrat who is term limited. Republicans there are hoping to tie Democrats to unpopular positions to flip the governorship, while Democrats are hoping to win back those disaffected moderates who shifted toward Trump in November.
Dan Cassino, professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University, told Newsweek the issue of high-school sports is key "for the suburban voters that have formed the base of the Democratic Party coalition in the post-2016 era" in New Jersey.
What to Know
Their vote against the trans sports bill may win over progressive voters, crucial to victory in a Democratic primary, Cassino said, but may alienate more moderate voters.
"A vote against the bill would help them with progressive voters in the state - and that's 40 percent of Democrats. You can't afford to upset them and hope to win a Democratic primary," he said. "However, it is potentially costly for them in the general, as any of the Republican candidates are likely to make a big deal out of protecting girl's sports."
Alyssa Maurice, director of research at the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy at Stockton University, told Newsweek Democrats need to "tread carefully" on culture war issues to avoid alienating key Democratic constituencies who tend to be more socially moderate, such as Hispanic voters in New Jersey cities like Passaic and Paterson, where Trump overperformed expectations.
Still, the issue of transgender athletes in women's sports is not a major issue for most New Jersey voters, said Dr. Tina Zappile, director of the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy and associate professor of political science at Stockton University.
A Stockton University poll from October 2024 showed economy and border security as more pressing issues for Jersey voters, she said, reflecting the rest of the country.
Both candidates have established themselves as moderates in Congress. Gotheimer remains a member of the centrist Blue Dog Coalition, of which Sherrill is a former member.
Polling shows that Americans are less supportive of transgender athletes participating in women's sports, even as LGBTQ+ acceptance has increased over the past 20 years. A Gallup poll from May 2023 found that 69 percent of Americans believe transgender people should play on teams that match their sex assigned at birth.
Newsweek reached out to each of their campaigns for comment via email.
In an hour of debate the preceded the vote on Tuesday, several Democratic lawmakers raised concerns about what they view as a lack of enforcement mechanism in the bill potentially opening the door to genital examinations. But Republicans said the bill would only require schools to check a student's birth certificate for inspection.
Some Democrats who previously expressed agreement with restrictions on transgender athletes' participating on sports, such as Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton, voted against the bill. Moulton wrote in a statement the bill was too "extreme" for him to support.
How Competitive Is New Jersey Gubernatoriaal Race?
Zappile said the New Jersey gubernatorial election will likely be very competitive come November.
"While it's tempting to interpret the 2024 election results as signaling some kind of shift in voter behavior, we usually expect this to be a tight race. In a state divided into smaller strongholds for each party, where suburbs are equally as important as urban and rural districts, where big issues like the economy seem to drive voters more than culture wars and partisan rhetoric, nothing is guaranteed," she said.
Republicans could win, particualrly if county parties fail to improve turnout in more Democratic-leaning urban areas, Cassino said. But he noted the competitiveness will ultimately depend on the nominees each party puts up.
"A moderate Republican can probably win, especially if a bruising primary forces the Dem nominee left, but a very Trumpy Republican is going to have a harder time," he said.
What People Are Saying
Cassino, to Newsweek: "The primary is likely to be very competitive, on both the Republican and Democratic side. As for how competitive the general will be... That depends on the nominees. It's entirely possible that a moderate Republican can win the governor's race in NJ, especially if the county parties aren't able to get turnout in the urban core areas back up to historical levels."
Representative Suzanne Bonamici, an Oregon Democrat, on the House floor: "This is damaging and discriminatory against transgender students, who benefit as all students do from participating in school sports. And damaging to the entire school that's threatened, because federal funding benefits all students."
Representative TIm Walberg, a Michigan Republican, on the House floor: "The Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act offers a new promise to America's women and girls that will strengthen Title IX's protections for women, ensure a level playing field for female athletes and protect the law from current and future radical regulatory schemes."
What Happens Next
The bill still has to pass the Senate, where it would need to clear the 60-vote filibuster to become law. It's unclear whether any Senate Democrats are planning to vote in its favor.
If the legislation does pass the Senate, it would go to the president's desk for a signature. President-elect Donald Trump is set to be inaugurated on Monday, and he has expressed support for transgender sport bans.
Meanwhile the New Jersey Democratic primary will be held on June 10, with the general election set for November 4. The Cook Political Report classifies the race as "Lean D."
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