Sean "Diddy" Combs' chances of being pardoned by President Donald Trump have dipped to an all-time low, according to bettors' forecasts on the online prediction platform Polymarket.
Bad Boy Records founder Combs was arrested and charged on September 16, in a three-count indictment, with racketeering conspiracy, sex trafficking and transportation to engage in prostitution. He has pleaded not guilty and denied any wrongdoing, but he has been denied bail on multiple occasions.
Combs' representatives have repeatedly pointed Newsweek to the following statement: "We live in a world where anyone can file a lawsuit for any reason and without any proof. Fortunately, a fair and impartial judicial process exists to find the truth and Mr. Combs is confident he will prevail against these and other baseless claims in court."
In the several weeks since Combs has been placed in custody ahead of his May 2025 trial date, Trump has won and embarked on his second term in the White House. With the plethora of pardons already issued by Trump since his January 20 inauguration, speculation remains over whether the Republican will pardon Combs.
On Thursday, rapper and fashion designer Kanye "Ye" West took to X, formerly Twitter, to write: "@realDonaldTrump PLEASE FREE MY BROTHER PUFF," referring to the star by another of his stage names.
West, who has legally changed his name to Ye, is an avowed Trump supporter who visited the president at the White House during his first term in office.
As well as asking for Trump to pardon Combs, West dedicated a stream of X posts to defending the embattled star as he declared: "PUFF WE LOVE YOU."
However, conservative media personality Nick Sortor commented on the platform that West's efforts don't appear to have helped matters, if bettors are to be believed.
Sharing a screenshot showing Polymarket's odds of Trump pardoning Combs within his first 100 days as president, Sortor added the caption: "After @KanyeWestbegs President Trump to pardon Diddy, odds of a pardon NOSEDIVED to just 1%, per Polymarket."
Since November, Polymarket has shown Combs' chances of a presidential pardon hovering well below the 5 percent mark. Around the time that Trump was inaugurated, predictions stood at just over 3 percent. In the days since, predictions have dipped to 1 percent.
Newsweek contacted representatives of Combs, West and Trump via email for comment outside of normal business hours.
Polymarket, which gained prominence and credibility for correctly calling the results of the 2024 election, calculates odds based on how many "shares" users buy in potential events occurring. The prediction market's outcome-focused odds, as well as the fact that real money is on the line, have led many to consider it more reliable than conventional polls or political analysis.
Bettors on the platform, however, have had mixed successes in forecasting other political events, such as who Trump would pick to staff his White House cabinet.
Trump and Combs' Relationship
As with a host of other celebrities, Trump and Combs were photographed together at various events over the years. The New York Post's Page Six reported in May that Trump was among the celebrities featured in an invitation to Combs' 29th birthday party in 1998. In the video invitation, Trump referred to Combs as "the legendary Puff Daddy."
While Trump has made little public comment about their relationship, he did share glowing words on an episode of The Celebrity Apprentice back in 2012. Speaking with then-contestant Aubrey O'Day, Trump said: "I love Diddy. You know he's a good friend of mine. He's a good guy. Is he a good guy?"
O'Day, who was part of girl group Danity Kane, which was initially signed to Combs' Bad Boy Records, declined to answer Trump's question. In the years since, she has been publicly critical of Combs. O'Day also claimed that she had an affair with Donald Trump Jr. after they met on the show.
Meanwhile, Combs discussed his friendship with Trump in an October 2015 interview with The Washington Post. At the time, Trump was a longshot candidate in the 2016 Republican presidential primary.
"Donald Trump is a friend of mine, and he works very hard," Combs said.
That tone changed months into Trump's first term, when Combs told The Daily Beast in June 2017: "I think that to be honest, we don't really give a f*** about Trump, because [black people are] in the same f*****-up position. So that's not what we're on. The tomfoolery that's going on in D.C., that's just regular everyday business to Black folks. That's not surprising."
The criticism continued in 2020, as Trump ran for a second presidential term.
"White men like Trump need to be banished," he said in an interview with radio host Charlamagne tha God, per CNN. "That way of thinking is real dangerous."
"When you look at it, we don't have no choice," he added. "Say what you want about [Joe] Biden, I can't say I love the pick either. But we've got to get him in office, and then we've got to hold him accountable."
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