Scientists have been searching the skies for an extraterrestrial intelligence for years and found nothing. However, many believe the chances of success are improving fast, so if 2025 turns out to be the year that we make first contact with a non-Earthly intelligence, how will people react?
"I've bet everyone a cup of Starbucks that this will happen, so obviously I believe the chances are good," said Seth Shostak, a speaker, author and senior astronomer at the SETI (Search for Extra Terrestrial Intelligence) Institute.
Born in 1943, Shostak has observed scientific efforts to find an ET intelligence since his youth growing up in New York City. He explained why he is now more optimistic than ever.
"This is primarily based on the unrelenting march of technology. Every two years, more or less, the speed at which we're searching for a signal doubles, so I suspect that such a discovery is imminent."
Finding an ET intelligence would compare to Europeans discovering the New World and its native inhabitants at the end of the 15th century, Shostak says, but be even more important.
"It will be an inflection point for humanity, and I suspect that future histories will split the human experience into time before and after the discovery of other beings.
How would people react if an ET was found?
Shostak dismisses the idea that people would panic, given that most Americans believe that aliens exist.
Rather, he says, many people would be fascinated and would try to reach out to the aliens.
"You can be sure that everybody in the world who has the capability to broadcast a response will try and do so, right.
"You know, just talk to us, that kind of thing. And I'm sure that would happen. And honestly, I don't see anything wrong with that. That's what humans do."
There will be some, says Shostak, that will not want to respond to the alien signal at all, people who think that it would be like shouting in the jungle.
"You don't know what the consequences of doing that might be. And keep in mind that any society that could actually hear anything we said could actually pick up a signal, they would willy-nilly be more advanced technically than we are.
"So you know, maybe it's not a good idea to let them know that we're here now."
"They [aliens] might decide that, well, okay, there's a world there that has obviously the raw materials for a technological society, so let's go take them.
"They might not just welcome us with open arms and offer us some hors d'oeuvres or whatever."
The instinct to lie low would be pointless, in any case, says Shostak, as through our television, radio, and radar stations we are advertising our existence to the cosmos 24/7.
Then there will be the optimists, he says, who will see the arrival of ET as an opportunity.
"Maybe they could tell us all sorts of useful stuff that otherwise we're going to spend the next couple of centuries figuring out for ourselves."
Many other people might react by trying to figure out what the content of the alien signal is. Everyone, says Shostak, could play a part in that.
"If we get some kind of message from them that we don't understand, that could be that could make all kinds of impacts.
"The next thing to happen, in my opinion, would be to put whatever is on that signal, whatever modulation, whatever message, just put it on the internet and let people try and figure it out.
"It's like deciphering the hieroglyphics and the 1830s—just let a lot of people try."
How would religion be impacted?
There could be a profound religious reaction from people, Shostak says, because the arrival of ET may lead people to question their beliefs.
"Well, what happened in the 18th century when Europeans began landing on these islands in the Pacific? And all the ones that were inhabited had religious beliefs."
"What effect did it have when the Europeans showed up on these big wooden sailing ships that these guys didn't have, and it pretty much wiped out most of their religions.
"Because the attitude was these guys can sail across the ocean to get to us. Whatever religion they've has more mojo, if you will, than our religion. So they switched over in most cases."
What if microbial life was found on Mars?
Given the presence of rovers on Mars it's possible microbial life will be found there in coming years. While not as dramatic as a signal from an ET intelligence, Shostak says of this potential discovery; "I wouldn't sell it short."
"I wouldn't underestimate the impact of that, because if we were to find, even just microbes on Mars or even dead microbes on Mars, that would tell you that life is not a miracle, right?"
"Life can spring up anywhere where their conditions are reasonably salubrious. And I think that that will affect some fraction of the populace in a fairly dramatic way, because there are plenty of people out there who figure that Earth is very special, because we've got life.
"If we were to find that biology got to start on Mars too, it would once again underscore the fact that we're not terribly special, something that our moms never told us, and would probably, be disquieting to many people."
What about UFOs, UAPs and drones?
Of the UFO and recent drone sightings phenomena in the northeast U.S., Shostak says that, while more than half the American public think at least some of the Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs) are alien craft, he doesn't believe it.
"Are drones flying over New Jersey because the aliens are interested in New Jersey culture?"
Shostak thinks that when we find a signal from an ET intelligence it might not have come from a life form at all.
"Personally—if we pick up a signal—I don't expect it would be the result of some biological being transmitting something into space.
"Biological intelligence is, from my point of view, merely a weigh station to the development of synthetic intelligence—thinking machines.
"I think our descendants living in the next century will find it quaint that we still figured that extra-terrestrial intelligence would be housed in a living being."
English (US) ·