Former President Donald Trump is narrowly leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania for the first time since July, according to FiveThirtyEight's aggregation of polls.
Pennsylvania is one of the all-important swing states that both campaigns are targeting, as the race for the White House enters its final stretch.
Trump led President Joe Biden in the Keystone State prior to the latter's exit from the race in July. Democratic presidential candidate Harris had been marginally ahead since then, but as of early Monday the Republican nominee leads now by a hair─0.3 points.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump has 47.9 percent support in the state, whilst Harris has 47.5.
When contacted for comment on this lead, Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung provided Newsweek with the following statement: "President Trump is out working Kamala Harris, and voters know America can no longer survive under Kamala's destructive policies of soaring inflation, an out-of-control border, and rampant crime terrorizing every community."
Newsweek has also contacted the Harris campaign for comment via email outside of standard working hours.
The race remains on a knife's edge in the other swing states.
As of early Monday, Trump also had marginal leads in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, whilst Harris was slightly ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada.
It is important to remember that polls measure the popular vote. A candidate can win this but still lose the election if they fail to secure 270 out of the 538 Electoral College votes, a number based on each state's delegates in the Senate and House of Representatives.
According to FiveThirtyEight's Electoral College simulations of election outcomes, Trump wins the electoral college 53 times out of 100, whilst Harris wins 47 times out of 100, as of Monday morning.
Polls also have a margin of error, often of at least a few percentage points. Considering the closeness of the scores currently, polls imply a tight race that could swing either way.
Polls have also historically underestimated Trump support, though pollsters now say this is better accounted for.
"Many pollsters today are using past vote [history] to correct for the Trump undercount," Cliff Young, the president of Ipsos polling, previously told Newsweek.
At the national level, Harris maintains her small lead over the Republican presidential candidate.
FiveThirtyEight currently has the Democratic nominee 1.8 points ahead with 48.2 percent support.
According to statistician Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin blog, Harris leads with 48.9 percent compared to Trump's 47.2.
Meanwhile, RealClearPolling's aggregation of national polls puts Harris 0.9 points in the lead, with 49.2 percent versus Trump's 48.3 percent.
Oddsmakers paint a different picture of the race, however.
RealClearPolitics' betting average currently gives Trump a 58.3 percent chance of winning, and Harris a 40.8 percent chance.
Compared to standard election polls, which usually take place over multiple days, gambling odds are highly reactive to news events and thus update more quickly.
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