Former President Donald Trump is narrowly leading Vice President Kamala Harris among Arab American voters.
The Arab News/YouGov poll found 45 percent of respondents said they are most likely to vote for the Republican nominee in November's election, while 43 percent would likely vote for Harris, Semafor reported on Monday. Another 4 percent said they would vote for Green Party candidate Jill Stein, while 6 percent said they were undecided and another 2 percent declined to reveal their choice.
The poll surveyed 500 Arab Americans across the county in late September, and Trump's advantage is within the margin of error. Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
The results align with another survey released earlier in October by the Arab American Institute, which had Trump with a razor-thin edge over Harris, 42 percent to 41 percent, among Arab Americans. That survey was conducted among 500 Arab American voters between September 9 and 20 and has a margin of error of 4.5 percent.
Both Harris and Trump have been appealing to Arab American voters in Michigan, a swing state with a significant Arab American population. While Arab and Muslim Americans overwhelmingly backed President Joe Biden in 2020, that support has significantly eroded amid anger over the Biden administration's ongoing support for Israel's offensives in Gaza and Lebanon.
Trump is seeking to capitalize on the frustration of Arab Americans with the Democratic administration, despite a well-documented history of hostile rhetoric and policies toward Muslims in his first term. He has pledged to reinstate the travel ban targeting Muslim countries that he instituted in his first term and broaden it to include refugees from Gaza if he wins a second term.
The Arab News/YouGov poll found that 29 percent of Arab Americans said the Israel-Palestine issue was their top priority, while 21 percent said the economy, and 21 percent said the cost of living.
The survey also found that Trump is seen as more supportive of the Israeli government, while Harris is seen as more sensitive to the needs and problems of Arab Americans in the U.S.
Arab Americans have told Newsweek of their plans to use their vote to make their voices heard.
"This is a moment for Arab Americans, for Muslim Americans—the majority of us," Ali Dabaja, of Dearborn Heights, said. "There's no turning back from genocide. There's no turning back from massive bunker bombs that decimate and massacre our people." Israel denies accusations of genocide.
At a campaign event in Michigan's Oakland County on Friday, Harris said that the past year "has been very difficult, given the scale of death and destruction in Gaza and given the civilian casualties and displacement in Lebanon."
The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar "can and must be a turning point," Harris said. "Everyone must seize this opportunity to finally end the war in Gaza, bring the hostages home and end the suffering once and for all."
Trump has not provided specifics about his plans for the Middle East.
On Monday, he sought to appeal to Arab American voters by warning that the Middle East would "spend the next four decades going up in flames" if Harris wins the White House.
He also slammed Harris for campaigning with former Republican congresswoman Liz Cheney, the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney.
"Arab Voters are very upset that Comrade Kamala Harris, the Worst Vice President in the History of the United States and a Low IQ individual, is campaigning with 'dumb as a rock' War Hawk, Liz Cheney, who, like her father, the man that pushed Bush to ridiculously go to War in the Middle East, also wants to go to War with every Muslim Country known to mankind," Trump wrote on Truth Social.
"If Kamala gets four more years, the Middle East will spend the next four decades going up in flames, and your kids will be going off to War, maybe even a Third World War, something that will never happen with President Donald J. Trump in charge. For our Country's sake, and for your kids, Vote Trump for PEACE!"
James Zogby, founder and president of the Arab American Institute, said Israel's war in Gaza is having a significant impact on Arab American voters.
"In our thirty years of polling Arab American voters, we have not witnessed anything like the role that the war on Gaza is having on voter behavior," Zogby said in a statement after the organization's poll was released.
"The year-long unfolding genocide in Gaza has impacted every component subgroup within the community—with only slight variations among religious communities and countries of origin, immigrant or native born, gender and age groups … Arab Americans and, as our polls of U.S. voters have shown, those who share their concerns (young and nonwhite voters) will be watching to see if their deeply felt concerns with Palestine and Lebanon will be recognized and respected with a promise for change."
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