Donald Trump Now Favorite in Five Major Election Forecasters

1 month ago 8

Donald Trump is considered the favorite to win the 2024 election by five separate forecasters with just over two weeks to go in the campaign.

Decision Desk HQ/The Hill and 538 both recently said Trump is the favorite to win the election over Kamala Harris for the first time this cycle.

Trump is also considered the front-runner by pollster Nate Silver, who founded 538 and now uses a similar model for his Silver Bulletin blog, as well as polling aggregators RealClearPolitics and VoteHub.

Decision Desk HQ/The Hill and 538 said that while Trump is marginally considered the favorite, the race should still be considered a toss-up. Neither Trump or Harris have a clear lead in any of the seven main swing states which could determine who wins the election overall. The two are essentially tied in Pennsylvania in all five forecast models.

The Keystone State is vital to both Harris and Trump for their clearest path to gaining 270 Electoral College votes. Harris will hit the 270-vote threshold if she wins the blue wall swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, barring any shock results elsewhere. Trump will be declared the winner if he wins Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.

Harris is ahead of Trump in all five forecasters' national polling averages, suggesting the vice president could win the popular vote but lose the election overall.

Reacting to the forecasts, Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung told Newsweek on Monday: "President Trump is outworking Kamala Harris, and voters know America can no longer survive under Kamala's destructive policies of soaring inflation, an out-of-control border, and rampant crime terrorizing every community."

Newsweek has contacted Harris' team for comment via email.

The Decision Desk HQ/The Hill said on October 20 that Trump has a 52 percent chance of victory in November after he gained in polling averages in Wisconsin and Michigan, as well as adding to his existing lead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

"However, polling in the seven key battleground states—Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—remains within the margin of error, meaning typical polling inaccuracies could shift the results in either direction," the Decision Desk HQ team said.

"These states are expected to be decisive in determining which candidate reaches the crucial 270 electoral votes. Currently, neither Trump nor Harris has a clear lead in enough states to secure that number."

On Friday, 538 declared Trump the favorite to win the election over Harris, giving the former president a 53 percent chance of victory in November.

"You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast 'flipping' to Trump, but it's important to remember that a [53]-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris—both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate," 538's G. Elliot Morris wrote.

"While Trump has undeniably gained some ground over the past couple weeks, a few good polls for Harris could easily put her back in the 'lead' tomorrow. Our overall characterization of the race—that it's a toss-up—remains unchanged."

Silver said on Friday that Trump has once again become the front-runner over Harris in the 2024 race, giving the former president a 50.2 percent chance of victory.

VoteHub's state polling averages have the former president with 283 Electoral College votes in November. Trump currently leads Harris by 0.1 points in Michigan, 0.2 in Nevada, 0.3 in North Carolina, as well as 0.7 in Georgia and 1.4 in Arizona.

RealClearPolitics has Trump ahead over Harris in all seven swing states.

The former president is ahead in Arizona by 1.6 points, Nevada by 0.8 points, Michigan by 1.2, Pennsylvania by 0.8 points, North Carolina by 0.5, Georgia by 1.8 points and 0.2 points in Wisconsin.

Harris has a 0.9-point lead over Trump in RealClearPolitics' national polling average (49.2 percent to 48.3).

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