Former President Donald Trump has edged ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the razor-thin presidential race, marking a shift from Harris' consistent lead in national polls, according to a new survey.
Less than two weeks before Election Day, the presidential race remains neck-and-neck, with both major party candidates' narrow leads often within the polls' margins of error. Trump has pulled ahead of Harris in four recent major national polls for the first time since early August.
A recent Wall Street Journal (WSJ) poll of 1,500 registered voters found that the former president leads the Democratic nominee by 2 percentage points, 47 percent to 45 percent. Trump's lead falls within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
The poll, conducted between October 19 and 22, found that 3 percent of respondents are undecided, and 2 percent still support Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the independent candidate who dropped out of the race in August.
When third-party candidates were excluded, and respondents were given a choice only between Harris and Trump, Trump's lead expanded to 49 percent compared to Harris' 46 percent.
Trump's newly reported lead is the opposite of what a similar WSJ poll of 1,500 registered voters conducted between August 24 and 28 found.
The August survey showed Harris ahead by 2 percentage points, 47 percent to 45 percent. In a head-to-head matchup, the August poll found a narrower lead for Harris, 48 percent to 47 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
The October poll shows a decline in favorability for Harris, while Trump's favorability has increased.
In August, Harris was evenly split, with 49 percent of respondents holding a favorable view and 49 percent holding an unfavorable view. By October, 45 percent viewed Harris favorably, while 53 percent viewed Trump favorably—a reversal of his August numbers when he had 45 percent favorability and 53 percent of respondents viewed him unfavorably.
In response to the new poll's findings, Steven Cheung, Trump's campaign spokesperson, told Newsweek in an email, "President Trump is out working Kamala Harris, and voters know America can no longer survive under Kamala's destructive policies of soaring inflation, an out-of-control border, and rampant crime terrorizing every community."
Newsweek reached out to Harris' campaign via email on Thursday for comment.
The poll found Harris leading Trump on two of six key issues: abortion and Social Security and Medicare. Trump led on the other four: immigration, the economy, inflation, and the Israel-Hamas conflict.
In 2020, a similar WSJ/NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters found President Joe Biden ahead of Trump by 10 percentage points, 52 percent to 42 percent. That poll, conducted between October 29 and 31, 2020, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
National aggregate polls still show Harris leading but with a much tighter margin than before. The New York Times aggregate shows Harris up 49 percent to Trump's 48 percent, while The Hill shows a slightly tighter lead for Harris of 0.9 percent, 48.7 percent to Trump's 47.8 percent. RealClearPolling finds Harris with only a 0.2 percentage point lead, 48.7 percent to Trump's 48.5 percent.
Nationwide and aggregate polls gauge voter sentiment, but individual states and their Electoral College votes ultimately decide the presidential election. To win the presidency, a candidate must secure 270 electoral votes, which doesn't always align with the national popular vote.
State-specific victories are crucial to securing electoral votes, as seen in the 2016 election when Democrat Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but lost the presidency to Trump by failing to reach 270 Electoral College votes.
While pollster Nate Silver's polling aggregate shows Harris ahead by 1.6 percentage points, his current forecast gives Trump a 52.7 percent chance of winning, compared to Harris' 47 percent.
Pollsters, statisticians and political analysts all largely consider the race a toss-up. The election is expected to come down to Pennsylvania, the battleground state with the most Electoral College votes, 19.
The Keystone State is in a deadlock, with Silver's aggregate showing the state completely tied at 48 percent. Others, like The New York Times, find Harris leading by 1 percentage point, whereas The Hill shows Trump up 0.2 percent.
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