Former President Donald Trump appears well-positioned to win Florida's 30 electoral votes, according to polling data and betting odds, 13 days before Election Day.
Once considered a swing state, recent trends show Florida leaning further to the right, and although polls started to tighten earlier in the month, Trump has maintained a consistent lead over Vice President Kamala Harris.
A new Emerson College poll released on Monday shows a widening gap between the two candidates, further diminishing Democrats' chances of flipping the state.
Polls
Recent polling has consistently shown Trump leading Harris in Florida, and the latest survey from Emerson College, conducted between October 18 and 20 among 860 likely voters, shows Trump with an 8-point lead. The poll puts Trump at 54 percent support, with Harris at 46 percent.
The result aligns with the polling average compiled by aggregator FiveThirtyEight, which shows Trump leading Harris by 5.9 points, 50.7 percent to 44.8 percent, in the state. Over the past month, Harris has consistently trailed by margins ranging from 1 to 14 points, with no poll showing her in the lead.
The Emerson poll suggests that what was already an unlikely scenario for Democrats is becoming even more remote, with Trump's lead widening as early voting progresses.
"Trump's 13-point lead probably isn't a fluke simply attributable to random chance," said Nate Cohn, chief political analyst for The New York Times, whose poll recorded a 13-point Trump lead, adding that the former president has held a "considerable lead among Florida's voters" throughout 2024.
In the state's U.S. Senate race, Emerson's poll has incumbent Republican Rick Scott leading Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by 6 points, 53 percent to 47 percent, and FiveThirtyEight's polling average shows Scott ahead by 2 to 9 points in all 10 October polls recorded.
To take back control of the Senate, Republicans will need to hold all of their current seats up for reelection, including Florida, as well as flipping two. In Montana, Republican Tim Sheehy seeks to oust Democrat incumbent Jon Tester, and in West Virginia, Republican Jim Justice is the strong favorite to succeed Democrat-turned-independent Senator Joe Manchin, who is retiring.
Betting odds
The betting markets are even more bullish on Trump's prospects in Florida. According to online betting platform Polymarket, Trump has a 94 percent chance of winning the state.
The Senate race shows a similarly steep uphill climb for Democrats. Polymarket puts Scott's chances of victory at 90 percent.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns via email for comment.
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