A former campaign manager to former President Barack Obama has warned that early voting numbers are 'scary' for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Jim Messina, who was Obama's campaign manager in 2012, said in an interview on MSNBC that data has shown Republicans making significant gains in early voting in battleground states.
Asked what the Harris campaigns biggest concerns are, he said, "The early vote numbers are a little scary."
Messina added that, the early vote totals have caused lots of his friends to call him "panicking," when comparing the data to that of the 2020 election.
"Republicans didn't do what they did last time," he said. "Last time, Trump told his don't vote early so they didn't. Republicans do have an advantage in early vote numbers. When the early votes come in, it's going to look a little bit different than 2020 and that's scary."
Early voting turnout appears to have increased among registered Republicans, in a shift from 2020. In this election cycle, the Republican Party has advised voters to cast early ballots.
"Early voting has increased exponentially since 2000, to the point where we can expect 50 percent of votes cast in 2024 to come in ahead of Election Day. Speculation about who these early voters cast their ballot for is, at best, a guess," Michael Cullinane, professor of history at Dickinson State University, North Dakota, told Newsweek.
"These could be never-Trump Republicans or die-hard MAGA supporters. And what if we see record turnout in person in Philadelphia and Milwaukee."
"The turnout of women could also lead to "mirage" results," he said.
Messina said that Democrats are pleased with the early turnout of two voting demographics that the Harris camp has been banking on: women, and younger voters. "Women voters make up 55 percent of early voters, and in the past 10 days, young voters in these battleground states are coming out in what looks to be, for early voters, historic numbers."
Recent analysis from Newsweek has pointed to a significant gender divide in the election, with women voters showing a preference from Harris to Trump, and men showing a pronounced preference for the Republican nominee.
Newsweek's analysis indicated that on average, Harris has the support of 52 percent of female voters, and 43 percent of male voters. Trump on the other hand, has support from 53 percent of male voters and 44 percent of female voters.
Cullinane said that, "We assume that because abortion is so high on the agenda for women that Harris will benefit, but suburban white women have also polled well for Trump in recent surveys and past elections. 2020 was an anomaly."
Less than 24 hours until the election, and the polls are tighter than ever in what is one of the closest races in recent history.
As Harris and Trump make their final pitches to voters, polls are tighter than ever, with the most recent averages from polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight putting Harris less than a point above Trump.
However, some polling has shown Harris gaining ground. A shock poll released over the weekend had Harris leading Trump by three points in deep-red Iowa, and election analytics firm 338Canda's most recent prediction model said that Harris is set to win the critical battleground state of Nevada. According to their model, she held the lead at 53 percent to Trump's 47. If she is to win Nevada, her odds of winning the Electoral College would be at 75 percent, according to 338Canada.
Cullinane told Newsweek, "On election night, we'll have a better idea because Georgia and North Carolina have made it easier to count early ballots. Before then, we're just speculating."
"Both campaigns should focus on getting out the vote; that's all that's left to do."
Newsweek has reached out to the Harris campaign via email for comment.
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