October saw near-record temperatures, as 2024 looks to be the hottest year ever.
This year is "virtually certain" to be the warmest on record, and the first year to climb 2.7 F on average above pre-industrial (1850–1900) temperatures, according to a report from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) released on Thursday.
This estimate is based on the skyrocketing temperatures recorded worldwide this year so far, with September marking the end of a staggering 15-month streak of record-warm global temperatures.
"Earth's ablaze. And humanity's exposed. This year, we've suffered the hottest day, and the hottest seas, in the history books," U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a statement marking the release of a United Nations Environment Programme report on the same day. "Humanity's torching the planet and paying the price."
According to the C3S report, this October was the second-warmest on record, after October 2023, with an average global surface air temperature of 59.45 F. This is 1.44 F higher than the October average temperature between 1991 and 2020, and 4.97 F higher than average preindustrial temperatures.
Worldwide, the January to October period this year has been 3.3 F above the 1991-2020 average, which is 0.28 F higher than the January-October period in 2023 and therefore the highest on record for this period of time.
2023 was just below 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial temperatures at 2.66 F higher, but it is expected that 2024 will blow 2023 out of the water, possibly hitting 2.79 F above pre-industrial levels.
"After 10 months of 2024 it is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and the first year of more than 1.5 C [2.7 F] above pre-industrial levels according to the ERA5 dataset," Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), said in a statement. "This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming Climate Change Conference, COP29."
September 2024 was also the second-warmest on record, after September 2023, with global temperatures of 2.23 F above the 20th-century average.
"The average temperature of the contiguous U.S. in September was 68.6 F, 3.8 F above average, ranking second warmest in the 130-year record. Generally, September temperatures were above average across much of the contiguous U.S." NOAA explained in their September 2024 U.S. and Global Climate Report.
Arizona, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota all saw their warmest September ever this year.
October sea surface temperatures were also at near-record-breaking levels this October, at an average of 69.2 F between 60°S and 60°N latitudes, second only to October 2023's 69.4 F. This comes despite La Niña conditions causing below-average temperatures in the equatorial eastern and central Pacific.
Additionally, according to the C3S report, Arctic sea ice was 19 percent below average, marking its fourth-lowest October extent, while Antarctic sea ice was 8 percent below average.
"Our ailing planet is sending us every signal that it is in crisis – the latest being the deadly floods in Spain which have claimed the lives of so many and wreaked colossal damage," Mike Childs, head of science, policy and research at Friends of the Earth, said in a statement.
"The time for dither and delay is long gone. We need global leaders to smash the emergency glass now and do everything in their power to prevent further harm. As well as accelerating a fair transition to green, low carbon economies, that means putting the measures in place that will protect people, properties and infrastructure from current and future impacts of climate change."
The United Nations Environment Programme report also released on Thursday found that the $28 billion spent in 2022 around the world to adapt to the changing climate fell hugely short of the estimated $187-$359 billion that may be needed every year to tackle the extreme weather that climate change is causing.
"Frankly, there is no excuse for the world not to get serious about adaptation," the United Nations Environment Programme's director Inger Andersen said. "We need well-financed and effective adaptation that incorporates fairness and equity."
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