Execs Predict Raiders to Sign Pro Bowl QB for Around $100 Million Contract

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Mark Davis & Tom Brady of the Las Vegas Raiders.

A big reason why the Las Vegas Raiders likely missed out on Ben Johnson as head coach due to their lack of a quarterback. Aidan O’Connell has shown that he’s at least a high-end backup but shouldn’t be a full-time starter.

The Raiders fell to No. 6 in the 2025 NFL Draft order and that may put them out of the range of drafting a top quarterback prospect. That could lead them to address the need in free agency.

The Minnesota Vikings seemingly struck oil when they signed Sam Darnold as a free agent last year for $10 million. However, they used a first-round pick on J.J. McCarthy last year and could turn to him as the starter in 2025.

That would make Darnold a free agent who could sign wherever he wants. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler polled executives around the NFL and they are predicting the Pro Bowl quarterback ends up with the Raiders.

“At Pick 6, [the Raiders] are out of range for a quarterback unless they move up, which wouldn’t be smart based on the amount of holes they have,” a high-ranking personnel man of an NFL team told Fowler. “They need every pick. They have flexibility within the cap to get it done.”

Execs Expect Contract Around $100 Million for Darnold

Darnold likely cost himself some money with how he played the final two games of the season. In the final game of the regular season against the Detroit Lions that could’ve gotten the Vikings the No. 1 seed in the NFC, Darnold threw no touchdowns and had a 43.9% completion percentage.

In the playoffs against the Los Angeles Rams, he threw one touchdown to one interception in the loss. Instead of a contract that could’ve made him $200 million+ in free agency, executives believe he’s looking at half of that now.

“Las Vegas is slated to have nearly $100 million in 2025 cap space, more than enough to pay a veteran passer,” Fowler wrote. “Most execs polled believe Darnold belongs in the Geno Smith/Baker Mayfield class of contracts, somewhere in the range of three years and $100 million.”

Is Darnold Right for Raiders?

Had the Raiders landed Johnson as head coach, Darnold would’ve made a ton of sense. However, signs are pointing toward the team targeting former Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll, who has a defensive background.

Pairing Darnold with a defensive head coach seems like a major mistake. Perhaps it could make sense if Carroll were to hire Vikings quarterbacks coach Josh McCown as his offensive coordinator.

The Raiders aren’t really in a position to spend big on a veteran quarterback. That said, signing Darnold would allow them to use their draft picks on other positions of need. Plus, if Carroll is the head coach, he may be more inclined to try and build a quick winner instead of undergoing a total rebuild. He would be the oldest head coach in NFL history if he takes the Raiders job and it’s hard to imagine he wants to take three years to build up the team.

It’s difficult to know what the Raiders will do until they have a general manager but they certainly could be in the Darnold market this offseason.