President-elect Donald Trump's plans to impose 25 percent tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada have led to heated debate, with the two countries accounting for almost 30 percent of U.S. trade volume.
In a series of Truth Social posts, Trump explained that the tariffs were intended to curb the flow of illegal drugs, such as fentanyl, into the U.S. and reduce migration.
While a cause of concern for some, Trump's plans were heralded by conservative commentators who say it forced Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo to declare that no migrant caravans would reach the U.S. border.
The Claim
A post on X, formerly Twitter, by Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk, posted on November 26, 2024, viewed 390,900 times, said: "Within hours of President Trump announcing a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico, President Claudia Sheinbaum declares that no migrant caravans will reach the U.S. Border. President Trump has promised to keep the tariffs in place 'until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!'
"Trump effect on full display."
The post included a screengrab of a Newsweek article titled "Migrant Caravans Not Reaching Border, Mexico President Says After Trump Threats."
Another post by news director Eric Daugherty, posted on November 26, 2024, viewed 4.6 million times, said: "#BREAKING: Mexican president announces she is stopping the migrant caravans from arriving at the U.S. southern border after Trump's tariff threat. The announcement came only 12 hours later."
The Facts
Although Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo released a statement both addressing migrant caravans and the tariff proposals, she did not pledge or declare to end caravans as a result of the plans.
The letter, which has been translated and posted on X by co-general coordinator of the organization Progressive International David Adler and The Washington Post global affairs columnist Ishaan Tharoor, mentions efforts already made to reduce border crossings and break up caravans.
"Dear President-elect Donald Trump, I am writing to you regarding your statement on Monday, November 25, concerning migration, fentanyl trafficking, and tariffs," Sheinbaum said.
"You may not be aware that Mexico has developed a comprehensive policy to assist migrants from different parts of the world who cross our territory en route to the southern border of the United States.
"As a result, and according to data from your country's Customs and Border Protection (CBP), encounters at the Mexico–United States border have decreased by 75% between December 2023 and November 2024.
"Moreover, half of those who arrive do so through a legally scheduled appointment under the United States' CBP One program. For these reasons, migrant caravans no longer arrive at the border."
Nowhere does the letter mention a commitment to take action against caravans. To the contrary, Sheinbaum's letter challenges the argument that actions to address immigration have stagnated.
The letter in full is as follows:
"Dear President-elect Donald Trump,
"I am writing to you regarding your statement on Monday, November 25, concerning migration, fentanyl trafficking, and tariffs.
"You may not be aware that Mexico has developed a comprehensive policy to assist migrants from different parts of the world who cross our territory en route to the southern border of the United States. As a result, and according to data from your country's Customs and Border Protection (CBP), encounters at the Mexico–United States border have decreased by 75% between December 2023 and November 2024. Moreover, half of those who arrive do so through a legally scheduled appointment under the United States' CBP One program. For these reasons, migrant caravans no longer arrive at the border.
"Even so, it is clear that we must work together to create a new labor mobility model that is necessary for your country, as well as address the root causes that compel families to leave their homes out of necessity. If even a small percentage of what the United States allocates to war were instead dedicated to building peace and fostering development, it would address the underlying causes of human mobility.
"On another note, and for humanitarian reasons, Mexico has consistently expressed its willingness to help prevent the fentanyl epidemic in the United States from continuing. This is, after all, a public health and consumption problem within your society. So far this year, Mexican armed forces and prosecutors have seized tons of various types of drugs, 10,340 firearms, and have detained 15,640 individuals for violence related to drug trafficking.
"Furthermore, the Mexican Congress is in the process of approving a constitutional reform to classify the production, distribution, and commercialization of fentanyl and other synthetic drugs as a serious crime without bail. However, it is publicly known that the chemical precursors used to produce this and other synthetic drugs are illegally entering Canada, the United States, and Mexico from Asian countries. This underscores the urgent need for international collaboration. You must also be aware of the illegal trafficking of firearms into my country from the United States.
"Seventy percent of the illegal weapons seized from criminals in Mexico come from your country. We do not produce these weapons, nor do we consume synthetic drugs. Tragically, it is in our country that lives are lost to the violence resulting from meeting the drug demand in yours.
"President Trump, migration and drug consumption in the United States cannot be addressed through threats or tariffs. What is needed is cooperation and mutual understanding to tackle these significant challenges.
"For every tariff, there will be a response in kind, until we put at risk our shared enterprises. Yes, shared. For instance, among Mexico's main exporters to the United States are General Motors, Stellantis, and Ford Motor Company, which arrived in Mexico 80 years ago. Why impose a tariff that would jeopardize them? Such a measure would be unacceptable and would lead to inflation and job losses in both the United States and Mexico.
"I am convinced that North America's economic strength lies in maintaining our trade partnership. This allows us to remain competitive against other economic blocs. For this reason, I believe that dialogue is the best path to understanding, peace, and prosperity for our nations. I hope our teams can meet soon to continue building joint solutions."
Provisional U.S. Customs and Border Protection statistics show there were 106,344 Southwest land border encounters in October 2024, more than half the number in October 2023 and 2022.
Since December 2023, the number of encounters has shot down. Following a recent peak of 301,981 crossings in December 2023, in the four months recorded since June 2024, crossings have fallen to an average of around 104,900 per month.
In those same four months the number of encounters between lawful crossing locations, a.k.a points of entry, has also dropped significantly to an average of around 56,200 per month, a number that roughly meets or falls below many monthly figures recorded under the last Trump administration.
Newsweek has contacted media representatives for Donald Trump, Turning Point USA, and the Mexican government via email for comment.
The Ruling
False.
The letter sent by Claudia Sheinbaum does not declare that it will end the journey of migrant caravans from Mexico to the U.S. The letter states the actions already taken to lower migrations, saying these actions have already meant "caravans no longer arrive at the border."
FACT CHECK BY Newsweek's Fact Check team
English (US) ·