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Last summer, Malibu’s favorite blonde went toe-to-toe with Cillian Murphy and the hydrogen bomb in a double-feature forever known as “Barbenheimer.” Now, audiences are witnessing a new battle of the sexes between the first half of Jon M. Chu’s two-part “Wicked” film adaptation and Ridley Scott’s long overdue “Gladiator” sequel, both in theaters the weekend before Thanksgiving.
It’s an imperfect comparison, but an important one coming on the heels of a highly gendered U.S. presidential election that has many people asking, “Does America just … hate women?” You could call this event “Glicked” — or maybe “Wickediator”? Heck, name it “Gladiator: Part 1” and let other people figure it out! Whatever mash-up you choose, this is the cinematic grudge match to watch if you’re pondering the differences between men, women, and their respective purchasing power at the movies in 2024.
Pre-Thanksgiving is a coveted time for tentpole releases and a critical window if “Wicked” wants to sidestep “Moana 2” on November 27. The Wizard of Oz himself (AKA Jeff Goldblum) acknowledged the double-bill’s box office potential when speaking with Deadline, and “Gladiator II” star Paul Mescal has repeatedly said that he feels pressure to buoy theaters after a disappointing October at the movies. Glicked would help him do that, if only because the films are smaller than, say, a Marvel or Star Wars outing and appeal to such vastly different crowds that they’re unlikely to cut against each other as competition.
“It would be amazing,” Mescal told Entertainment Tonight when asked about the possibility of Glicked becoming the next Barbenheimer. “The films couldn’t be more polar opposites and it worked in that context previously. So fingers crossed people come out and see both films.”
The “Barbie”/”Oppenheimer” pairing wasn’t just genius marketing, although Warner Bros. and Universal Pictures did lean into the gimmick with tons of pink-and-black advertising. No, Greta Gerwig’s $1.4 billion fish-out-water comedy actually did triple-duty last year — raking in the dough and doing brand rehabilitation for a toy company and examining the state of modern feminism and beauty standards on screen, all via a single sparkling Margot Robbie performance.
Simultaneously, Christopher Nolan’s epic historical drama explored the thorniest corners of the 20th century — taking aim at the West’s use of nuclear weapons (notably without showing their horrifying aftermath) and earning nearly $976 million worldwide.
Both “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” used original IP to make essential reassessments: one of an iconic doll’s impact on young girls and the other of a global superpower’s indelible demons of war. In the end, most cinephiles would agree that “Barbie” won, not only because that film made more money but because its success spun into a broader moment many dubbed The Year of the Girl.
That moniker — inspired as much by Gerwig’s thoughtful reflection on girlhood as sweeping support for pop stars like Taylor Swift and Beyoncé — would have seemed premature if it had actually been followed by the election of the first U.S. woman president in 2024. Instead, 2023 is just one of several progressive high points sure to look more rose-tinted in Hollywood’s rear-view. Did “Barbie” do enough for women? Did women do enough for “Barbie”? Post the rise and fall of Brat summer, does it even… matter?
The sudden shift in the national gender conversation between this year and last makes Glicked all the more intriguing as a goalpost in a largely lackluster fall for the box office. Right now, heading into its opening domestic weekend on November 22, “Wicked” is projected to do significantly better than “Gladiator II.” As estimated by Boxoffice Pro (and in keeping with wider industry analysis), the musical stands to make Universal Pictures between $110 – $140 million during its U.S. opening while Scott’s ancient Rome revisitation should make Paramount Pictures a comparative $60 – $80 million. That may be because “Wicked” is the superior movie — reviews and early social media reactions suggest that it is — but the two films’ target audiences also tend to approach buying movie tickets differently.
First-day presales for “Wicked” are breaking records left and right against its reported $145 million budget, and “Gladiator II” (which is estimated to cost somewhere between $210 million and $300 million) opened internationally last week well above projections. It netted $87 million across 63 territories, including the United Kingdom, and that surge could signal a surprise coming from action audience in U.S. That genre group is not only historically male-dominated, but also tends to be averse to Thursday showings and prone to more impulse-based theater attendance on weekends. Men may walk up in droves to support “Gladiator II” — or kick off a long holiday season of Scott’s sequel staying stuck in second place.
“‘Gladiator II’ may hit a nerve more than expected,” IndieWire’s box office editor Tom Brueggemann cautioned, again noting the sequel’s strong potential for day-of ticket sales. “‘Wicked’ has much more intense interest and an early word-of-mouth, but if either one does better, I’d bet on ‘Gladiator’ even without a boost from reviews.” (Notably, “Wicked” reviews didn’t hit until the Tuesday before release when IndieWire’s Kate Erbland gave it a “B-.” Meanwhile, “Gladiator II” reached critical consensus a week earlier with its international debut, scoring a “C” from Vikram Murthi for IndieWire.)
Similar to the memes that started Barbenheimer, “Wicked” is also enjoying viral buzz from Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo’s bubbly and at times emotional press tour. Embarrassing copy editing flubs notwithstanding, the PG-rated film’s copious merchandise has also boosted its visibility as theater kids don pink and green to further eventize the release. Rated R like “Oppenheimer,” “Gladiator II” doesn’t have all the same activations in its corner as “Wicked” — making Scott’s efforts to overcome a legendary Broadway favorite with a swords-and-sandals adventure more than 20 years removed from its namesake an uphill battle.
Still, if the the recent focus on male culture in our national coliseum tells us anything (Paul vs. Tyson, anyone?), then it may be time for bros to make the box office defy gravity.
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