Despite Democratic optimism about flipping Florida on November 5, Vice President Kamala Harris' favorability has declined in the state, according to a recent poll.
Democrats have previously said that Florida—and its 30 Electoral College votes—could be in play for Harris on Election Day, with some polls suggesting the race is close. In September, Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison said that the party thinks it "has a shot" in Florida and that people may be "surprised on election night about what happens in the state."
Florida has an electoral history of voting both blue and red, sometimes by very narrow margins. Donald Trump won the state twice, in 2016 and 2020, while Barack Obama carried the Sunshine State in 2012 with 50 percent of the vote and in 2008 with 51 percent. The 2000 contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore came down to just a few hundred votes in the state, with the Supreme Court settling the count in Bush's favor by just over 500 votes.
Less than two weeks from Election Day, polling shows Trump leading in the state. The Hill's aggregate state poll finds Trump with a 6.1 percent lead over Harris as of Wednesday afternoon.
The most recent Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of 860 likely Florida voters, conducted between October 18 and 20, found that Harris is losing favorability among voters in the state.
The poll, published Wednesday, shows 45.8 percent of respondents have at least a somewhat favorable view of Harris, while 54.2 percent hold a negative view of the Democratic nominee. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
It reports a 3.1-point drop in favorability percentages from a similar Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of 815 likely voters, conducted between September 3 and 5. In that poll, 48.9 percent of respondents had a favorable view of Harris, while 51.1 percent did not. The poll also had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percent.
On the other hand, Trump experienced a slight boost in favorability between the two polls. In September, 51.4 percent of respondents viewed him favorably, while 48.6 percent held an unfavorable view of the GOP nominee. Trump received a 0.6 increase in favorability, with 52 percent holding a somewhat favorable view of him in the October poll and 48 percent unfavorable.
The polls also show that Harris' net favorability went from -2.2 in September to -8.4 in October, a 6.2 percentage point decline. Meanwhile, Trump's net favorability increased from +2.8 percent in September to +4 percent in October, a rise of 1.2 percentage points.
Outside of favorability, the polls also show Trump growing his lead over Harris to 8 points. The latest poll shows Trump with 52 percent support and Harris with 44 percent. In September, Trump led by 5 points, 50 percent to Harris' 45 percent.
Newsweek has reached out to the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email on Wednesday.
Early in-person voting in Florida began Monday, with state data showing more than 2 million people have voted in Florida: 1,488,353 by mail and 762,805 in person.
Of those who have voted, 954,657 are registered Republicans and 845,413 are registered Democrats. Voters affiliated with a party do not necessarily vote along party lines.
Update 10/23/24, 3:53 p.m. ET: This article has been updated to include the polls' net favorability figures for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
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