IndieWire’s 9 Bold-ish Industry Predictions for 2025

We don’t need to wait until Hollywood opens for business in 2025 to tell you how it will end. Or at the very least, we’re here to take wild (and some not-so-wild) guesses about what’s to come.

Yes, IndieWire’s “Bold-ish Industry Predictions” has become an annual tradition around here — we’ll leave it up to readers to decide how successful it’s been. Find our 2024 industry predictions here (and the 2023 version here).

Now, let’s peer deep into our crystal ball for 2025…

Lionsgate Finds a Buyer

For the love of 2025, let this be the last year we have to write about the Starz/Lionsgate spin and sale. Forget Starz: Does nobody want Lionsgate? Like the drones currently terrorizing the New Jersey sky, we believe someone is out there.

The Lionsgate branch had a rough 2024. The “Megalopolis” trailer debacle. The backlash over its AI deal with Runway. The gutting of its TV overall deals. The CEO labeling its release of “Borderlands” an outright disaster. But it did absorb eOne and bolster its film library in late 2023, and with “Ballerina” and “Michael,” its film slate for 2025 looks a lot brighter. With a spin of the studio from Starz, Lionsgate should finally be positioned for someone to come in and buy the whole thing. Amazon already got MGM; Apple, come get Lionsgate already.

David Zaslav, President and C.E.O. of Warner Bros. Discovery, speaks to reporters as he arrives at the Allen & Company Sun Valley ConferenceGetty Images

WBD Is Just Getting Started

Warner Bros. Discovery was born in April 2022. Since then, a whole bunch of shit has gone down.

The latest corporate update sees a restructure in which the company’s studio and streaming businesses (including HBO) will be separated from its linear channels. The next step, if you follow both logic and media analysts, may be to sell off CNN and the Turner and Discovery cable networks. David Zaslav may not be there just quite yet, but Brian Roberts sure is. Comcast took the strategy one step further, announcing that its “SpinCo” (NBCUniversal cable channels and MSNBC/CNBC) will operate as a separate entity.

WBD — and Zaslav — will remain one company… for now. But Comcast left the door open for SpinCo to partner up with other assets just like Zaslav has, and we predict such a combination could be the future for cable and linear pay TV. What’s more, it would open the door for WBD to become even more aggressive in eliminating debt than it already is.

Or perhaps it will take on more debt. Zaslav has said his eyes are open to additional M&A activity — especially come another Trump administration. Zaslav recently said that the exchange of power from Biden to Trump “may offer a pace of change and an opportunity for consolidation that may be quite different” and “would provide a real positive and accelerated impact on this industry that’s needed.”

A Major Streamer Goes the Way of the Dodo

Skydance’s acquisition of (the control of) Paramount Global is expected to close in spring of next year. When that happens, Skydance founder David Ellison has a lot of decisions to make, like “Do I even want Paramount+?”

The market cannot contain a limitless number of streaming services, and Paramount+, which has struggled to attain profitability, feels like it could be the first big casualty. Its 72 million subscribers are nothing to sneeze at — at least not until you consider a recent poll of top streaming executives who felt it would take 200 million subscribers to survive the great consolidation. Not many people see the path for Paramount+ to make it to the top of the mountain of entertainment — not without a hell of a lot more bundling.

Ellison didn’t want Paramount for its linear TV networks — though he may come around on CBS — but at least those bring in cash. He’s not seemingly over-enthused about its digital properties — Pluto TV, which is profitable, is a likely selloff — he’s in it for the studio. This larger takeover was required to merge Paramount Pictures with Skydance, a move foretold by many “Mission: Impossible” movies. Sometimes loss leaders need to just get lost, and it just feels like that will be the fate of Paramount+.

Dana Walden, Bob Iger, and Alan Bergman attend the 2023 OscarsGetty Images

And Bob Iger’s (Second) Disney Successor Is…

Disney CEO Bob Iger is set to step down in 2026, with a successor announced in 2025. The odds-on favorite in our book is Dana Walden, the co-chair of Disney Entertainment (with Alan Bergman, another possibility).

Walden’s star has only risen in the last three years, even when Bob Chapek was still around and got rid of Peter Rice and gave Walden more power. She along with Bergman took another step up in February 2023 upon Iger’s return and commitment to returning power to creatives. So while she may not have the theme park experience her peer Josh D’Amaro does, her acumen with talent relationships have made her the frontrunner for some time and perhaps the opposite of what Iger initially saw in Chapek.

The succession race got a little more complicated when last month news broke that Disney’s search committee was broadening its scope to look at some outsiders. Mattel CEO Ynon Kreiz’s name was floated, as was Electronic Arts CEO Andrew Wilson, who makes sense because Disney has increasingly wanted to ramp up its efforts in the gaming space. But we predict they’ll ultimately stay within the castle and hire Cinderella herself.

Amazon Enters Its Box Office Era

Amazon, which purchased MGM in 2022, isn’t treating every director like Doug Liman. Amazon/MGM Studios is entering its box office era in 2025, starting with a splashy debut at CinemaCon.

The studio will hit Vegas in April to show off its 2025 (and beyond) films to exhibitors and make the case they’re dedicated to the theatrical business. Amazon/MGM waited until this moment to make its debut now that film chief Courtenay Valenti and marketing head Sue Kroll have a full slate prepared. Having some extra movies in the coffers should do some good for the overall health of the box office. A report from NATO projects 110 new releases hitting theaters in 2025, up from 95 this year, and it may have Amazon to thank.

Amazon MGM had 11 movies hit theaters in 2024, but it captured just 3.6 percent of the year’s market share. With sequels for “The Accountant” and “A Simple Favor” and new films from Nia DaCosta, Michael Showalter, and David Ayer, we predict that percentage will climb easily.

Dan LinFilmMagic

Netflix Does More Shit It Said It’d Never Do

Remember when Netflix was never going to implement commercials and basically let you share your account with whomever you choose? Those were the days.

These days, commercials are here, as is Netflix’s “paid-sharing” program. What promise can the streamer break next? Avoidance of actual sports is an option, considering that Netflix already bent its rules with two NFL games on Christmas Day and just bought the rights to the 2027 and 2031 FIFA Women’s World Cup.

How about theatrical? Dan Lin is now in charge of Netflix’s film division (though Bela Bajaria maintains oversight of content, TV, and film) — he’d probably like to see certain Netflix films in theaters. Somewhere, Rian Johnson is raising one hand and pointing to “Knives Out 3” with the other.

But what about TV? Well, Netflix has already shifted away somewhat from its “episode dump” release strategy. Key series like “Bridgerton,” “Stranger Things,” and “Emily in Paris” (among others) have already seen their divided seasons in half, primarily a move to combat churn. The final season of “Cobra Kai” was split into three parts. Might Netflix take it one step further and release episodes weekly, a la traditional TV and many of its streaming competitors? Nothing should be considered off the table.

We Never Hear from Venu Again

Venu Sports, we hardly knew thee. The planned sports-centric streaming service from Disney, Fox, and Warner Bros. Discovery never really had a reason to exist in the first place. And then WBD lost the NBA. And Disney+ added an ESPN tile. And Fubo tried to sue Venu into oblivion.

Fubo has a pretty good case for why Venu shouldn’t exist and has a good chance of moving that finite expiration date up from 2033 to right now. The streamer is basically arguing to the courts (not the basketball court, mind you) that WBD, Disney, and Fox have consistently raised their prices and forced other cable channels onto MVPDs if they want to get premium sports, but they’re no longer beholden to the same rules.

If it’s not Fubo that gets its way, maybe it’s the NFL, which certainly didn’t agree to airing games on a streaming platform that still doesn’t even exist. Or maybe it’s the pretty narrow subset of consumers Venu is ostensibly targeting who have cut the cord but don’t want any of the non-sports viewing options, not to mention only a portion of the NFL, a handful of the MLB, and now a third of the NBA. We predict a failure to launch.

‘Longlegs,’ Maika MonroeCourtesy Everett Collection

Indies Break Box Office Records

There will be plenty of blockbusters in 2025, but we’re more interested in what will be next year’s “Longlegs,” Neon’s incredible feat of mysterious and word-of-mouth marketing that made the Nicolas Cage horror film the biggest domestic hit of the distributor’s history.

Increasingly, audiences are going to see certain films because A24 and Neon have put their stamps of approval on those films, and that’s allowed them to seriously ramp up. That has meant raising capital, expanding their footprint, and even growing their budgets. A24’s “Civil War” was the most it had spent in its history, and the Timothée Chalamet ping-pong movie “Marty Supreme” could surpass that.

We think this could be the year one of these two indie rivals builds up enough buzz to break the $100 million mark at the domestic box office. A24 has another collaboration with “Everything Everywhere All at Once” studio AGBO in “The Legend of Ochi” and the Tim Robinson/Paul Rudd comedy “Friendship,” while Neon has a sequel to “It Follows” and another film from “Longlegs” director Oz Perkins.

Apple TV+ Goes AVOD

Apple TV+ is the lone major streaming service holding out from adding ads. We salute them, but you don’t become a near $4 trillion company (by market cap) without being a little greedy. Could commercials be next? Why the hell not? Apple’s MLS streaming package (available as a standalone or a TV+ add-on) already has ads.

A change would also come as the higher-ups at Apple are at least raising an eyebrow to some of the big losses Apple’s recent movies have had at the box office. That’s led to a few about-faces in how Apple is doing things, including pulling back on some theatrical releases, cutting some costs, and even allowing Apple TV+ to become accessible through Amazon Prime Video (they went full-on AVOD too and are reaping the benefits).

If it does introduce ads, Apple will probably have to start telling us how many subscribers Apple TV+ has, which it really hasn’t wanted to do, so consider that the one caveat to this prediction.