Vice President Kamala Harris continues to hold a large polling lead in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, which could provide a crucial Electoral College vote on the Democratic presidential nominee's path to 270 votes.
A New York Times/Siena poll released on Monday gave Harris a 12-point lead over former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, in the district, which is a key battleground that awards one electoral vote because of Nebraska's vote-splitting method.
Harris has 53 percent of likely voters, while 41 percent back Trump. It marks her strongest performance in the district since entering the race, with earlier polls showing the lead ranging from 5 percent to 11 percent.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns via email for comment.
Nebraska has long been a Republican stronghold in presidential elections, but its 2nd District has twice awarded its electoral vote to the Democratic nominee—Barack Obama in 2008 and Joe Biden in 2020.
The district, which incorporates the state's largest city, Omaha, is one of the few in the country that grants a single electoral vote based on the district's popular vote, making it a key target for both parties. It has become especially significant for Harris. It is the most urban and by far the most Democrat-leaning area in the state.
In 2020, Trump won Nebraska by 19 points, securing 58 percent of the vote in the state to Biden's 39 percent.
Trump won 91 out of Nebraska's 93 counties. One of the two that backed Biden was Douglas County, which contains Omaha, is in the 2nd Congressional District and accounts for 29 percent of the state's population.
Harris and Democratic groups have spent more than $5 million in the district since she entered the race on July 23, while Trump's campaign has spent only $200,000 there, according to media-tracking firm AdImpact.
For Nebraska's 2nd District to break the tie in the race for the winning total of 270 Electoral College votes, Harris would likely have to win all Democrat-leaning states and the three northern battlegrounds of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. That would give her 270 votes.
In that scenario, with Trump winning all Republican-leaning states as well as the southern swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, as well as Maine's 2nd Congressional District, he would lose the election with 268 electoral votes.
The New York Times/Siena survey was conducted between October 23 and 26. It surveyed 500 likely voters in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percent.
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