Kamala Harris Is Outperforming in Battleground States, Polls Suggest

Vice President Kamala Harris is performing better in battleground states than she is nationally, according to polling.

A CNBC poll conducted between October 15 and 19 among 1,000 voters nationwide showed that nationally, former President Donald Trump held a 2-point lead—48 percent to Harris' 46 percent, within the poll's margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

However, in the seven battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—Trump's lead fell to 1 point, 48 percent to Harris' 47 percent. That portion of the poll had a margin of error of 4 percentage points. Trump's lead in the poll remained unchanged from August.

In a Fox News poll conducted between October 11 and 14 among 1,110 registered voters and 870 likely voters, Harris was 6 points ahead of Trump in the seven swing states—52 percent to Trump's 46 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 6.5 percentage points in the battleground states.

The poll also showed that Trump had overtaken Harris nationally, with 50 percent to her 48 percent, which falls within the poll's overall margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. That is a 4-point swing from when Harris led Trump by 2 points a month ago, also within the margin of error.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, with members of the press on board Air Force Two at Philadelphia International Airport on October 21. Recent polls have shown Harris doing better in battleground states... Jacquelyn Martin/AP

The poll bucks the trend of Harris leading nationally and Trump leading in the battleground states. Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.

Statistician Nate Silver's polling tracker and polling aggregator 538 still show Harris ahead nationally, while Trump has maintained a higher chance than his opponent of winning the Electoral College.

Silver's latest forecast gave Trump a 53.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College vote to Harris' 46.6 percent. It also showed Harris 1.6 points ahead nationally, with a 73 percent chance of winning the popular vote compared to Trump's 28 percent chance.

Pollster 538's forecast also shifted in favor of Trump, showing that he had a 51 percent chance of winning the election compared to Harris' 49 percent. In its tracker, Harris was 1.7 points ahead nationally.

Trump's Electoral College strength is largely attributed to his position in the battleground states, which are crucial for winning the election.

According to 538's tracker, Harris is leading by a slim margin of between 0.2 and 0.7 points in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. A month ago, she led in the three states by up to 2.4 points. Meanwhile, Trump leads by between 0.9 and 1.8 points in North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia. He is also leading by 0.2 points in Pennsylvania, where Harris had been leading since moving to the top of the Democratic ticket.

Silver's forecast showed that if Harris won only Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, she would have a 0.6 percent chance of winning the election. With Pennsylvania, her chances increased to 98.9 percent. But according to Silver's model, there is only a 2.9 percent likelihood of this scenario occurring.

RealClearPolitics' forecast showed Trump winning in every battleground state, giving him 312 Electoral College votes to Harris' 227, while Silver's model showed Trump had a 24 percent chance of winning every battleground state, making it the most likely scenario.

Still, the race remains a toss-up. "The race has gone from almost a toss-up to definitely a toss-up," Jon Parker, a senior lecturer in American Studies at Keele University in the U.K., told Newsweek last week. He added that this "does not suggest that either campaign is winning or losing."