1 month ago
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A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll reveals that Vice President Kamala Harris is now leading former President Donald Trump in Iowa, with 47% of likely voters supporting Harris compared to 44% for Trump. This surprising result marks a notable shift for Iowa, which swung solidly in Trump’s favor during the 2016 and 2020 elections.
If you have been paying attention, women, especially older and politically independent voters, appear to drive Harris’s late surge in Iowa. Meanwhile, Trump retains strong support among his core base, including men, evangelical voters, rural residents, and those without a college degree.
The extraordinary poll’s findings have stunned Democrats and Republicans, many of whom had assumed Iowa was a safe state for Trump. Just months ago, a June poll showed Trump leading by 18 points over President Joe Biden, and a September poll had Trump up by 4 points over Harris.
“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”
We’ll see how this plays out on Election Day, but we won’t hold our breath on Iowa turning blue. There’s nothing wrong with dreaming.
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