Vice President Kamala Harris is projected to win Nebraska's 2nd District, according to the Associated Press, giving the Democratic candidate the district's single electoral vote.
Nebraska's 2nd District has been a swing area in recent elections, voting for Trump in 2016 before flipping to Joe Biden in 2020. Polling ahead of the 2024 election indicated a contested/comfortable lead for Harris. Securing a win in NE-2 is pivotal for Harris, as in a tight race like this, every vote counts.
Which Presidential Candidate Did Nebraska's 2nd District Voters Pick in 2016 and 2020?
In 2016, NE-2 voters favored Donald Trump, adding a key electoral vote to his total. In 2020, the district shifted towards the Democratic side, with Biden winning by about 6.6 percent. This shift demonstrated changing political attitudes, particularly among suburban voters in Omaha.
As of October, voter registration in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District stands at 37.8 percent for Republicans, 34.6 percent for Democrats, and 25 percent for nonpartisan or independent voters. This marks a slight drop in registration for both major parties over the past four years. In comparison, November 2020 figures were 38 percent Republican, 36 percent Democrat, and 25 percent nonpartisan.
What Were the Polling Averages in Nebraska 2nd District?
According to Nate Silver's model, as of late October 2024, Kamala Harris held a lead in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, with 52.4 percent of the projected vote compared to Trump's 42.8 percent, giving Harris a 9.6-point advantage. This margin had increased from earlier in the month, where her lead was 2.1 points, and from September, when it was just 0.7 points.
Economy, Abortion and Education Among Biggest Issues in Nebraska 2nd District
In Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, the primary issues reflect those seen across the state, with economic stability, healthcare access, and education at the forefront. However, this district shows a distinct leaning on certain topics, particularly regarding abortion rights and educational policies.
With two competing measures on the November 2024 ballot, abortion has become a central issue, as one proposal aims to protect abortion rights up to fetal viability, while another seeks restrictions after the first trimester, with some exceptions.
After the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe vs. Wade, Nebraska enacted a law last year prohibiting abortion starting at 12 weeks of pregnancy except in medical emergencies or when pregnancy results from sexual assault or incest.
As of October, early voting in Nebraska saw strong participation, with 267,699 mail ballots returned out of 365,881 requested, according to the Nebraska Secretary of State. Among these early votes, Republicans made up 47.6 percent (127,314 votes), Democrats accounted for 35.5 percent (95,095 votes), and voters registered with no or minor parties comprised 16.9 percent (45,290 votes).
Neither Harris nor Trump visited Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, but both campaigns sent their running mates to drum up support. Democrats, aiming to keep the "blue dot" in red Nebraska, made a slightly stronger push, with Harris's running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, visiting the district twice. His wife, Gwen Walz, also held a rally focused on reproductive rights to further energize local support.
In contrast, Republicans maintained a lower profile, confident of a broader win in Nebraska. Ohio Senator JD Vance attended a private fundraiser, and Iowa Senator Joni Ernst led a get-out-the-vote event.
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