Ukraine on Sunday launched a shock new incursion into Russia's Kursk region, with battlefield maps showing reported advances.
Newsweek has reached out to the Russian and Ukrainian Defense Ministries for comment via email.
Why It Matters
The fresh offensive in Russia's western region of Kursk comes days before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is set to take office for a second term. Trump has repeatedly said that he can bring a swift end to the war in Ukraine.
With his return to the White House on January 20, the possibility of peace talks or ceasefire negotiations could be imminent, and both Russia and Ukraine are likely looking to boost their negotiating hand.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and prominent government officials have previously insinuated that Kursk could be part of possible peace talks. Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak suggested during a national TV broadcast in August 2024 that the summer Kursk incursion would serve to boost Kyiv's position in potential future negotiations with Russia.
Kyiv's renewed incursion will serve as a major blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin as war casualties mount on both sides.
What To Know
The latest advances in Kursk come nearly six months after Kyiv first sent troops into the region, seizing a swath of territory in an embarrassing reverse for Putin.
The Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement Sunday that the Ukrainian Armed Forces renewed their offensive in Kursk, launching a "counterattack" so that Kyiv could "halt the advance of Russian troops." Russian military bloggers said Ukrainian forces were advancing in several directions.
Ukraine's general staff said in a post on its social media pages on Monday morning that its forces were continuing an operation in the Kursk region, and had repelled 47 attacks over the past 24 hours.
Russia's defense ministry said its army had pushed back two Ukrainian counterattacks, while Russian Telegram channel Rybar, which has links to the ministry, said Sunday that fighting was taking place near the village of Berdin to the northeast of Sudzha, "where the highest level of enemy activity has been recorded so far."
Russian military blogger Yuriy Podolyaka said on Telegram on Sunday that Kyiv had launched an "expected" counteroffensive, and that heavy fighting was ongoing near Berdin.
"[Ukrainian forces] are seriously pushing," he wrote.
This morning, Ukrainian forces launched a series of assaults in Russia's Kursk Oblast.
Russian channels report that Ukrainian columns have pushed roughly 5-8 km into Russian lines, primarily around the village of Berdin. pic.twitter.com/rqHGFXJdpP
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S.-based think tank, assessed late on Sunday that Kyiv had resumed offensive operations in at least three areas in Kursk and made tactical advances.
"Geolocated footage published on January 5 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced in fields southwest and south of Berdin and entered the southern part of the settlement," the ISW said.
The think tank said Russian military bloggers had published updated battlefield maps that suggest that Kyiv's forces "also occupy Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, and Mikhaylovka (all northeast of Sudzha and southwest of Berdin) as of January 5 and reported that Ukrainian forces recently entered Novosotnitsky (just east of Berdin); and advanced in fields west of Yamskaya Step (immediately northwest of Berdin) and west of Novaya Sorochina (north of Sudzha and northwest of Berdin)."
Russian military bloggers have voiced concerns over Ukraine's electronic warfare capabilities, which are reportedly preventing Russian forces from operating drones in Kursk.
"The area is covered with some powerful electronic warfare, nothing is flying at all," wrote military blogger Sergei Kolyasnikov.
The ISW said the reports indicate that Ukrainian forces operating in Kursk "are employing more effective combined arms tactics."
Ukraine's initial incursion in Kursk saw its forces seize land but Russia has since recaptured some 40 percent of the territory lost. However, Moscow's forces have been unable to push Ukraine's troops out completely despite an order by Putin that Ukrainian troops must be ejected entirely from Kursk by October 1, 2024.
As of January 4, Ukraine was in control of 493 square kilometers of the Kursk region, according to the Ukrainian OSINT project DeepState.
Who Said What
Andriy Yermak, Zelensky's chief of staff, wrote on Telegram on Sunday, without elaborating: "Kursk, good news, Russia is getting what it deserves."
Andriy Kovalenko, an official with Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council said on Telegram: "The Russians in Kursk are experiencing great anxiety because they were attacked from several directions and it came as a surprise to them. The defense forces are working."
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters in Seoul on Monday: "[Ukraine's] position in Kursk is an important one because certainly it's something that would factor in any negotiation that may come about in the coming year."
What Happens Next
Ukraine's commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky previously said after the August offensive in Kursk was launched that one of Kyiv's objectives of was to divert "significant" Russian manpower from front-line areas in Ukraine, including the eastern Donetsk city of Pokrovsk, which is a key logistical hub for Ukrainian forces in the area.
This is likely to remain a key goal for the Ukrainian Armed Forces as Russia seeks to take control of Ukraine's Donbas region, which comprises the entirety of occupied Luhansk and Donetsk.
It remains unclear to what extent Ukraine has advanced in the Kursk region since Sunday.
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