As the northeastern and mid-Atlantic United States grapples with an unusually warm autumn, experts are raising alarms about increased wildfire risks fueled by persistent drought conditions across the region and beyond.
The combination of record-breaking temperatures and severe rainfall deficits has created a potentially dangerous situation from the Appalachians to the Interstate 95 corridor.
This week alone, more than two dozen daily temperature records fell across the Midwest and Northeast as thermometers climbed into the 70s and 80s. While such warmth might be welcome for outdoor activities, it's exacerbating an already concerning drought situation, particularly in major metropolitan areas.
Meteorologists are forecasting wildfire risks across parts of 46 of the 48 contiguous states.
"It has been exceptionally dry recently across portions of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast," Alex DaSilva, meteorologist and lead hurricane expert at AccuWeather, told Newsweek.
"Over the last 60 days, most of the Northeast has seen below 50 percent of their normal precipitation for the time period. Some areas have even seen below 25 percent of normal precipitation. Temperatures during the same time period have also been near to above average."
The severity of the current dry spell becomes apparent when comparing it to historical records. Philadelphia's driest Octobers occurred in 1924 and 1963, with merely 0.09 inches of rain recorded. New York City's Central Park saw just 0.14 inches in October 1963. Current conditions are approaching these historic lows.
Several major population centers haven't seen meaningful precipitation in weeks. Islip, New York, has received only 0.40 inches of rain since August 20, far below its historical average of 7 inches. Meanwhile, Allentown, Pennsylvania, has recorded no measurable rainfall.
Both Trenton and Atlantic City, New Jersey, are experiencing extended dry periods too.
"It is becoming increasingly likely that some locations in this area may go through their first-ever October without any measurable rain," Geoff Cornish, an AccuWeather on-air broadcaster and volunteer firefighter, said in the advisory.
The drought's effects stretch across more than a dozen states from the Ohio Valley and northern mid-Atlantic to the South, with the most severe conditions concentrated in Eastern West Virginia, Northwestern Virginia, parts of Western Maryland and South-central Pennsylvania.
The unusual weather pattern is affecting more than just moisture levels. Fall foliage displays are being cut short as trees shed their leaves earlier than usual, and the accumulation of dry vegetation is creating perfect conditions for wildfires.
Fire safety experts are particularly concerned about common fall activities like burning yard waste.
"People should be especially careful about avoiding open burning, especially on windy days," Cornish said. He recommended maintaining a "defensible space" around homes in wooded areas by clearing leaves, debris, and dormant vegetation several feet from the structure.
For those who must conduct controlled burns, timing is crucial. Burning one to three hours right after sunrise and just before and after sunset, when humidity is higher and winds are typically calmer, makes burning safer.
Residents are urged to check local regulations regarding open burning, consider alternatives like composting or municipal leaf collection, maintain awareness of fire risks in their area, create and maintain defensive spaces around structures in fire-prone areas and monitor local weather conditions before conducting any burning activities.
DaSilva added, "Looking forward, it does not look like the Northeast or mid-Atlantic will see any significant rainfall over the next few weeks, which can keep the fire danger elevated."
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