Map Shows States Where Murders Are Rising and Dropping Most

After a year of high-profile killings, including the death of the UnitedHealthcare CEO, the latest available data on murders across the United States showed a largely declining rate, with just nine states seeing rises year-on-year.

Overall, murders have fallen across the country since early 2020, with big cities like San Francisco and Chicago seeing declines. In New York City, rates have stayed mostly the same in the past few years.

Why It Matters

According to the data collected by the Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI), murder rates dropped 15.6 percent between 2023 and 2024 and by nearly 25 percent since 2022. Not all data is available, however, making it difficult to get an accurate view of the situation in all corners of the U.S.

The steady decline comes at a time when fewer Americans report concerns about crime in general, after fears steadily rose from pre-pandemic lows, according to Gallup.

What To Know

Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New York and Texas all saw a rise in reported murders year-on-year from October 2023 to October 2024.

While some were marginal shifts, the data available for New York showed a rise from 27 to 37 and Texas from 89 to 98. Both states have seen high-profile killings in 2024, including a woman burned to death on the NYC subway in December and the death of 12-year-old Jocelyn Nungaray in Houston in June.

Other states saw more significant drops, with Pennsylvania reporting 24 murders in the 12 months to October, compared to 36 the year before. In Tennessee, the number went from 46 to 31.

Arizona and Virginia, with data from 16 and 12 agencies, respectively, also saw decreases of more than 30 percent.

The RTCI cautions against drawing too many conclusions, citing different reporting methods and an absence of data for some states. The FBI's data for the year, expected sometime in 2025, will give a greater idea of crime rates countrywide, but with the different ways agencies across the country report crime, it is difficult to get an accurate picture.

A survey by Gallup in October found fewer people were worried about crime than they were a year ago, with a large gap between Republicans, the majority of whom said there was more crime than a year ago, and Democrats, among whom only 29 percent felt similarly. Looking ahead into 2025, another survey by Gallup found that 52 percent felt crime would fall in the next year.

Murder also remains a relatively small number compared to other crime types in the U.S., with larceny/theft the most common, followed by motor vehicle theft, according to the Pew Research Center.

What People Are Saying

Katie Schwipps, senior analyst at AH Datalytics, which runs RTCI, told Newsweek: "These numbers are, of course, preliminary and only reflect reported murders for the agencies included in the sample, but they show a continuation of a trend towards fewer murders nationwide following a peak in mid-2021."

Alex R. Piquero, professor of criminology at The University of Miami and former Director of the Bureau of Justice Statistics, told Newsweek: "Of course, there will be some cities that will have slight increases front the past year, but the number of these cities is becoming fewer and fewer over the last few years and through 2024. Going forward, we need continued tracking of such data but also look at the variations in murder within cities given the patterning of this crime type in certain areas."

Gallup, in its October survey analysis: "Americans' perceptions of whether crime is increasing in the U.S. and how serious a problem it is for the nation have been politically polarized since 2000. This is particularly true in recent years, when partisans' views of crime have tended to change based on the party of the president. Political polarization may be especially acute this year because of the presidential election."

What's Next

Local, state and federal law enforcement continue to insist they are taking steps to continue to bring down the number of homicides.

After the election, voters told The Manhattan Institute that the next administration, under President-elect Donald Trump, will need to focus on reducing offending, or a more proactive approach, rather than prioritizing "mass incarceration" and other measures to be tough on crime.