Mexican President Confident Tariff War with US Can Be Avoided

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Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Thursday she is confident a tariff war with the U.S. can be avoided, following recent tensions over migration and trade policies.

Her comments came one day after a phone call with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, although the details of the conversation remain unclear.

"There will be no potential tariff war," Sheinbaum said at a daily briefing when asked about the possibility of U.S. tariffs on Mexican goods.

She added that her conversation with Trump had been "excellent," but did not clarify the specifics of any agreements or promises made during the call.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum
Newly-sworn in Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum addresses supporters in the Zócalo, Mexico City's main square, Oct. 1, 2024. She recently said she is confident that a tariff war with the U.S. can be averted. Fernando Llano/AP, file

How will Mexico Stop Unauthorized Migration into the US?

On Wednesday, Trump posted on social media that Sheinbaum had agreed to stop unauthorized migration across the U.S.-Mexico border.

Sheinbaum, in turn, confirmed the discussion, stating that "migrants and caravans are taken care of before they reach the border."

However, the nature of her commitment—whether it was a formal pledge, an understanding, or simply a reflection of existing policy—remains unclear.

Over recent years, migrant caravans have formed in Central America, with thousands traveling north through Mexico to reach the U.S. border.

Mexican Migrants
Migrants walk through Tapachula, Chiapas state, Mexico, Nov. 20, 2024. In recent years, migrants who have been unable to obtain permission to cross Mexico have joined in caravans to walk or hitchhike north toward the... Edgar H. Clemente/AP

These groups of people have often been hindered by Mexican authorities, including migration agents and police, who block their passage, prevent them from hitchhiking, or detain and deport them.

Sheinbaum's remarks suggest that Mexico will continue to enforce these policies, but her comments do not appear to indicate any new or significant shift in how migration is managed by her country.

What Tariffs is Donald Trump Considering?

In the U.S., President Joe Biden urged Trump to reconsider his threat of imposing 25 percent tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada.

Speaking in Nantucket, Massachusetts, Biden expressed concerns that such a move would harm U.S. relations with key allies. "I hope he rethinks it. I think it's a counterproductive thing to do," Biden said.

Trump had previously threatened to impose the tariffs unless Mexico and Canada took stronger action to curb illegal immigration and the flow of fentanyl into the U.S.

He also proposed additional tariffs on Chinese imports, aimed at pressuring Beijing to take more stringent action against fentanyl production.

While Sheinbaum remained optimistic about avoiding tariffs, the potential economic impact on Mexico remains a serious concern.

How will Tariffs Impact Consumers and Producers?

A wide range of industries, particularly agriculture, could be affected by trade disruptions.

In western Mexico, for example, avocado growers—who supply the U.S. market with the bulk of its avocados—are worried that higher prices due to tariffs could reduce consumer demand for products like guacamole.

Earlier this week, Sheinbaum revealed that Mexico was preparing a list of retaliatory tariffs, should the U.S. go ahead with its proposed import duties.

If implemented, the tariffs on all goods imported into the U.S. from Mexico, Canada, and China could total around $266 billion, potentially causing significant disruptions to trade.

Experts warn that such tariffs would likely increase costs for U.S. consumers, with the financial burden falling on American families, importers, and both domestic and foreign companies.

The economic fallout from a trade war could ripple through industries on both sides of the border, further complicating an already tense political and economic relationship between the U.S. and Mexico.

This article contains additional reporting from The Associated Press

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