Mike Johnson's Odds of Being House Speaker as Republicans Stay Divided

15 hours ago 13

House Speaker Mike Johnson's betting odds of clinching the speakership again are just shy of 75 percent on prediction market website Polymarket, as Republican lawmakers remain divided on backing him.

Why It Matters

Lawmakers are scheduled to vote for House speaker on January 3, after the new House is sworn in. Johnson first clinched the speakership after the lower chamber ousted Republican Kevin McCarthy last year and went weeks without landing on a replacement.

Johnson, a staunch supporter of President-elect Donald Trump, has been hit with backlash after supporting the government spending bill that recently passed. It is unknown if Trump will back Johnson for speaker or if any MAGA challengers will emerge ahead of next week's vote.

Congress is required to certify results of the presidential election on January 6. If lawmakers cannot agree on a House speaker, the lower chamber would not be able to establish governing rules, forcing it to continue voting until a speaker is chosen.

What To Know

On Polymarket, Johnson has 73.6 percent of the vote compared to Republicans Steve Scalise's 6.2 percent, Jim Jordan's 5.1 percent and Tom Emmer's 3.6 percent as of 10:13 p.m. ET Friday.

But political analyst Craig Agranoff told Newsweek via text message on Friday night: "Johnson's bid for House Speaker shows the deep divisions within the Republican Party. While some Republicans like his strong conservative stance, others worry about his lack of leadership experience and whether he can bring the party together."

Agranoff continued: "His chances of becoming Speaker depend on his ability to win over moderates and unify the party, which is no easy task in such a closely divided House. If he can navigate this and show he's a strong leader, he could win. But if the divisions persist, it's going to be a tough road for him and a sign of how challenging it is for Republicans to stay united right now."

Other Republican lawmakers including Andy Biggs, Victoria Spartz, Troy Nehls, Tim Burchett and Josh Brecheen have previously said that they are undecided on Johnson.

What People Are Saying

House Freedom Caucus Chair Republican Andy Harris said to Fox News on Friday when asked if he'll vote for Johnson, "We're still working with the speaker's office to make sure that we don't have a repeat of what happened in the last two weeks leading up to that continuing resolution."

Harris added that he hopes Republicans can "figure out" the House with the current leadership in place but said that "some changes are going to have to be made."

Republican Thomas Massie said on X, formerly Twitter, on Friday, "I will vote for someone other than Mike Johnson. I'm not persuaded by the 'hurry up and elect him so we can certify the election on J6' argument. A weak legislative branch, beholden to the swamp, will not be able to achieve the mandate voters gave Trump and Congress in November."

Republican Mike Lawler said on CNN Friday night, "Mike Johnson won the vote within the conference to serve another term as speaker. He has worked tirelessly to help give us this majority, and, look, we all have our perspectives, our points of view. There's going to be times where we're frustrated by decisions that are being made. But the fact is that we have to work together, that there is no other recourse here, and if we haven't learned anything from the 118th Congress, it should be that we cannot go through another speaker battle."