Finland is concerned that Russia would attack NATO's eastern flank following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it has been reported.
Citing an alleged Finland government defense report, Finnish newspaper Iltalehti said that unnamed alliance sources had warned that Moscow intended to attack Finland and neighboring countries, including the Baltic states in the future, without specifying a timeframe.
The tabloid referred to how Russia had rehearsed an attack on Norway, Finland, and the Baltic countries during its Zapad military exercise in 2017 and that Moscow has since "not abandoned their invasion plan and want to carry it out after the war in Ukraine."
When contacted by Newsweek, the Finnish Defense Forces (FDF) said in a statement it would not comment on media reports "about any possible rehearsals in other countries" and that such rehearsals "are normal for any military."
"There is no immediate military threat to Finland," the statement said. Newsweek has contacted NATO and the Russian defense ministry for comment by email.
Why it matters
World leaders have said Russian President Vladimir Putin's aggression would not stop with the invasion of Ukraine following previous warnings that Moscow would seek to exploit security flashpoints in Europe as far south as Georgia, which borders Turkey.
Under Article 5 of NATO's charter, a strike on one member would trigger a collective response. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in June that Putin "might even attack a NATO country" and that Europe "must be ready for war by 2029."
In March, NATO conducted the Nordic Response 2024 exercise led by American Vice Admiral Douglas Perry, in which 20,000 soldiers were transferred to Northern Norway and Finnish Lapland.
Perry told the Finnish paper that Russia was designated as a direct threat to the alliance which practiced operations required "to repel the Russian invaders."
Micael Bydén, ex-commander of the Swedish Armed Forces warned in October that in the next few years, Russia may attack countries in the Baltic Sea region, which has been dubbed a NATO lake, following the accession of Sweden and Finland to the alliance.
What to know
The report cited by Iltalehti said that Putin's invasion of Ukraine "has shown that Russia is prepared to take significant risks regardless of losses," according to a translation.
The newspaper said NATO sources had said Russia might plan a simultaneous attack on different parts of the alliance's eastern flank. These included Russia's 14th Army Corps making a move from the Russian city of Murmansk onto the Norwegian coast from sea, land and air.
Russia could also send troops to Finnish Lapland to capture Ivalo Airport and Finland could be attacked by Russian missile forces stationed on the Kola Peninsula, the publication said.
Unnamed NATO sources also said that Moscow would try to create a buffer zone in Northern Lapland and Finnmark in Norway, while further south, Russian missile forces would target the southern coast of Finland and southeastern Finland, the outlet reported.
Russia's 6th Army could try to break through in Estonia and Latvia with a tank, artillery and missile attack in a bid to capture the capitals Tallinn and Riga, per the report.
Meanwhile, Lithuania could face an attack through Belarus as Moscow seeks to establish a land connection between the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus. This could lead to the capture of the so-called Suwalki corridor considered to be the flashpoint of any conflict between Moscow and NATO, per the report.
In addition, Russia's missile forces stationed in Kaliningrad and its Baltic Fleet would attack Gotland to make it difficult to maintain NATO's ground forces fighting in the Baltics from Sweden's direction, the tabloid newspaper said.
"Russia's security thinking reflects the pursuit of strategic depth and the desire to create a single buffer zone in Europe, from the Arctic through the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea to the Mediterranean," the Finnish government report said, according to the paper.
Henrik Gahmberg, spokesman for Defence Command Finland said in a statement, "Finnish Defence Forces won't comment on claims in the media about any possible rehearsals in other countries.
"Rehearsals are normal for any military, and FDF won't either comment of any possible operational perceptions if such rehearsals has taken place," the statement said.
"There is no immediate military threat to Finland. We are monitoring how the situation evolves and take necessary actions as usually we won´t comment on operational perceptions in our security environment."
What people are saying
An unnamed NATO source told the newspaper Iltalehti: "In 2017, Russia rehearsed an attack on Norway, Finland and the Baltic countries in its Zapad exercise. The Russians have not abandoned their invasion plan and want to carry it out after the war in Ukraine."
Micael Bydén, ex-commander of the Swedish Armed Forces: "Putin's goal is to gain control of the Baltic Sea."
Finnish Defense Forces said in a statement it "won't comment on claims in the media about any possible rehearsals in other countries.
"Rehearsals are normal for any military, and FDF won't either comment of any possible operational perceptions if such rehearsals has taken place."
What happens next
Speculation about Russia having a long-term plan to invade NATO after Ukraine is likely to continue, but the alliance has warned of the immediate threat posed by Moscow's so-called hybrid attacks.
These include the alleged cutting of energy and communications cables in the Baltic Sea, which Berlin described as "sabotage."
Finland has taken control of an oil tanker allegedly belonging to Russia's so-called "shadow fleet" which was suspected of damaging five submarine cables on Christmas Day.
Describing the short-term challenges that Moscow poses to the alliance, NATO's deputy assistant secretary general and head of hybrid and cyber threats, told Sky News about concerns that one of these attacks "will break through in a big way."
"There is a real prospect of one of these attacks causing substantial numbers of casualties or very substantial economic damage," he said.
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