NBA Player Props: 3 Best Bets for Tuesday (November 19)

The important thing here are his potential assists. He averages over 11 potential assists, and only twice this season has he not gotten to at least double-digit potential assists. Given that he only needs to get to six assists for this to cash, we like the fact that he is consistently going over 10 potential assists.

This is also a great matchup against the Hornets for how Simmons racks up assists. The Hornets allow the second-most points per game to the pick-and-roll (PnR) roll man, the fourth-most points per possession to spot-up shooters, the fifth-most points per game via handoffs and the third-most points per game off screens.

All of these plays are assisted, which is what makes this a great matchup for Simmons' assists prop.

There is also a chance that Simmons might start tonight with Nic Claxton being out for injury, so it is possible we see slightly more than the normal 25-minute workload, and even if not, he has shown he can easily get to this milestone in just 25 minutes.

Ben Simmons 6+ assists (-130): 1 Unit

Zach Collins o22.5 PRA (-120) DraftKings

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs, 9:30 p.m. ET

This is a play on increased usage for Collins with Victor Wembanyama out for this game. Wembanyama has only missed one game this year, but in that game, Collins went well over this number, with 26 combined PRA (points + rebounds + assists).

If we were just isolating the matchup of Collins vs. the Thunder, it would be a slightly better matchup for Collins' rebounds and assists. But he also scores significantly more with Wembanyama out of the game, and this is not a horrible matchup for his points prop despite how well the Thunder guard centers in general.

In the last 10 games that Wembanyama has missed, Collins has hit this 23 PRA number in eight of 10 games, and in one of the games he missed, he had 22 PRA.

He has done that while averaging over 17 points in those contests. As mentioned earlier, this is also a great matchup for his rebounds and assists, so we wanted to include all three.

The Thunder do a great job limiting points to the PnR roll man, which is why they are generally not a good matchup for center points props. However, they allow the second-most points per game to spot-up shooters, and that is how Collins scores the majority of his points.

As for the rebounds and assists, the Thunder allow the fifth-most rebounds per game to centers and the second-most assists per game.

Seven straight centers have hit their assists prop against the Thunder, and it is because they blitz the opposing 5, leaving open kickout opportunities.

Collins is a decent passer, getting to the four assist number three times this year, and twice getting to three assists. Look for Collins to have a good game tonight.

Zach Collins over 22.5 PRA (-120): 1 Unit

Darius Garland 3+ Made 3s (+115) FanDuel

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics, 7 p.m. ET

We are riding with a classic system play here, taking guard 3-point props against the Celtics.

This is something that we have mentioned a ton even dating back to last year, but it is all predicated on the drop coverage that the Celtics play when guarding screens.

Garland is the perfect type of guard to pull up when given the opportunity. Last year, Garland hit this number in five of eight games against the Celtics, and that was in a relative down year for Garland where he did not shoot as much as usual.

Under new head coach Kenny Atkinson, Garland is averaging the most 3PA of his career, which makes sense, as shooting from deep is a coaching emphasis of Atkinson's. He is also shooting 42.4 percent on pull-up 3s, so he is shooting well on this increased volume.

To touch on the Celtics defense, the overall pull-up 3PA numbers against the Celtics do not make them seem to be as juicy of a matchup as they were last year, but that is mostly because shooting has increased league-wide.

Last year, the Celtics averaged the most pull-up 3PA allowed at 11.4 per game. This year, they are allowing slightly more (11.6), but that number is just the 13th-highest in the league.

That said, this 3-point prop for Garland does not take into account the increased shooting across the league, as we are still getting plus-money for him to make three.

Overall, Garland has hit this number in eight of 15 games this year, but he has only hit it once in his last five games. That makes this a perfect "fade of recent results" opportunity.

Darius Garland 3+ Made 3s (+115): 1 Unit

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