NBA Player Props: 3 Best Bets for Wednesday (November 20)

The Rockets, meanwhile, play at the sixth-fastest pace in the NBA, so this should be a game in which both teams are running, which leads to stat accumulation overall.

This is a number that Sengun has missed in four straight games, but the two games prior to that he scored 27 points in back-to-back games, so it makes sense that his scoring load went down a little bit.

That said, it should increase for this game against the Pacers, who are a great matchup for big men with Sengun's scoring profile.

Despite being in the middle of the pack in terms of possessions guarding the pick-and-roll (PnR) roll man, the Pacers allow the seventh-most points per game to PnR roll men on the fifth-highest points per possession.

Sengun, meanwhile, runs the fifth-most possessions as the PnR roll man, and scores the eighth-most points per game as the PnR roll man as well. From there, the play type in which Sengun scores the second-most of his points is at the free throw line, and the Pacers allow the fifth-most free throws per game.

Overall, Sengun scores over half his points in the restricted area, and the Pacers allow the sixth-most made FGs in the RA.

Last time out, Jakob Poeltl hung 30 on the Pacers on Monday, and, overall, four straight centers have went over their points prop against Indiana.

Alperen Sengun over 22.5 points (+100): 1 Unit

Clint Capela o8.5 Rebounds (+106) FanDuel

Atlanta Hawks vs. Golden State Warriors, 10 p.m. ET

You might not expect it because the Warriors are known as a jump-shooting team, but they quietly allow the most rebounds per game to centers.

They are 30th in rebounds allowed to centers, allowing 19.61 per game. Unsurprisingly, they are also the best matchup for center rebound props, according to Props.Cash.

This is evident when looking through their game log, which shows a ton of rebounds allowed to centers:

• Ivica Zubac, 11/19: 17 rebounds on an o/u of 12.5
• Zach Edey, 11/16: 9 rebounds on an o/u of 5.5
• Dereck Lively II, 11/13: 8 rebounds allowed on an o/u of 7.5
• Jarrett Allen, 11/9: 12 rebounds on an o/u of 11.5.

As for Capela, he had a slow start to the year from a rebounding perspective, but has been very good recently. He has collected at least nine rebounds in five of his last six games, after only grabbing that many boards in two of his first nine games. Because of that, his overall season hit rate does not look that impressive.

But he is averaging 10.8 rebounds over the last six games, and, more importantly, 17.7 rebound chances per game in this stretch.

He also grabbed at least nine rebounds in both of his games against the Warriors last year, pulling down a total of 26 in those two games, and he cashed this prop in the two games he played against the Warriors the previous season as well.

Look for him to get at least nine boards tonight.

Clint Capela over 8.5 rebounds (+106): 1 Unit

Damian Lillard o7.5 Assists (+120) DraftKings

Chicago Bulls vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 p.m. ET

Our third and final play of the evening is going right back to a system play of taking a point guard's assists props against the Bulls. There are a ton of metrics supporting this system.

For starters, the Bulls have the worst defensive net rating in the NBA over the last 10 games, while also playing at the fastest pace in this stretch. For opposing PGs, they are a beautiful combination of having a horrible defense while also playing at an extremely fast pace.

They also allow the most assists per game to point guards, and they are the best matchup for PG assists props as well.

While Lillard is not having the best season from an assists perspective -- he has only had at least eight assists in three of 10 games -- he has consistently been getting close.

Three separate times this season, he reached exactly seven assists, and twice this season, he recorded 16 potential assists but did not get to eight actual assists. That type of low conversion rate is unlikely to continue over the course of an entire season.

We have also seen this exact matchup earlier this year, and in that game, Lillard recorded eight assists, and, more importantly, had 19 potential assists, which marked a season-high.

Damian Lillard over 7.5 assists (+120): 1 Unit

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