After back-to-back days with 10-plus NBA games to dive into, tonight is when that finally comes back to bite us, with only one game on the NBA betting slate for tonight.
At 9 p.m. ET, the Dallas Mavericks take on the Utah Jazz, in Utah. Of course, that did not stop us from finding the best NBA player prop picks today, which we will be diving into.
Luka Doncic o8.5 Assists (+105) Bet365
Luka Doncic had a slow start to his season from a passing perspective, but he has been much better recently.
He did not get above eight assists in any of his first six games of the season. Since then, he has done it in three of five, with his potential assist numbers way up as well.
He had 20-plus potential assists in two of those games, and in another game he had 15 actual assists.
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One of the games he went under this season was against this Jazz team, but he had eight assists that night, so he would have just hooked us on that number. This year, he has recorded exactly eight assists three separate times, so he had been getting close without getting over the hump.
But recently, that luck turned the other way.
Despite missing it in his last start, this is an excellent matchup for point guard assists props against the Jazz, especially considering how Doncic accumulates his dimes.
On the season, the Jazz have allowed the third-most assists to point guards in the entire NBA, and they are considered the second-best matchup in the NBA for PG assist props. Overall, 10 of 14 PGs on the season have hit their assist prop over/under against the Jazz.
That's because the aggressive style of their defense leads to a ton of catch-and-shoot (CnS) 3-pointers and a bunch of points for the pick-and-roll (PnR) roll man, which are both assisted baskets.
The Jazz allow the second-most CnS 3PA and the fifth-most points per game to the PnR roll man on the most points per possession to the PnR roll man. This is perfect for Doncic, who runs the fourth-most possessions in the NBA as the PnR ball handler and has the sixth-most drives in the league as well.
Between last year and this year, Luka has gone over this number in three of his last five games against Utah, with 11 or more assists in all three games in which he went over. Both times he went under, he had exactly eight assists, making this a great play for tonight.
Luka Doncic over 8.5 assists (+105): 1 Unit
Dereck Lively III 10+ Points (+130) Bet365
On a related note to our first play, our second and final play of the evening is going to be a points play on Dereck Lively III, who also has a great matchup tonight.
Lively missed some time early this season with an injury, but in his first game back, he scored 12 points in just over 24 minutes, which is about what we should expect tonight, if not a little bit more.
For context, the last time these two teams played, Lively played over 26 minutes and scored 14 points, easily cashing this over.
As mentioned previously when detailing Doncic's assist prop, the Jazz are a great matchup for rim-running centers, which makes this a great matchup for Lively.
To reiterate, the Jazz are currently allowing the fifth-most points per game to the PnR roll man on the most points per possession to the PnR roll man.
This is a good matchup for not only Lively, but also Daniel Gafford. Lively, however, scores a higher percentage of his points as the PnR roll man, and his points prop is also at a lower number than Gafford, so there is a little more value on Lively.
Lively also does a good job running the floor and scoring in transition as well as collecting offensive rebounds and scoring that way, and those are two areas that the Jazz also struggle with.
They are currently allowing the most points per game via putbacks, on the seventh-most offensive rebounds allowed, while allowing the most points per game in transition as well.
Unsurprisingly, dating back to last year, Lively has cashed this in all three games against the Jazz in which he has played at least 20 minutes, which is the absolute floor for him tonight.
Dereck Lively III 10+ points (+130): 1 Unit
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