Nevada Early Voting Could Signal 'Serious Danger' for Kamala Harris

Early voting in Nevada is signaling a warning sign for Kamala Harris, with Republicans holding an unexpected lead after the first three days of early and mail voting.

Data released at 10 p.m. on Monday by the Nevada Secretary of State showed Republicans have outpaced Democrats across Mail, EASE, and early voting, with 96,858 ballots cast by registered GOP voters compared to 88,983 by registered Democrats, giving the Republican Party an 8,000-vote lead statewide, or 3 percent. An additional 59,515 votes ballots have been cast by voters not registered to either of the two main parties.

Nevada has been a key battleground state in presidential elections throughout its history. Although it has backed Democratic candidates since 2008, the wins were often by small margins (Biden won in 2020 by 33,596 votes and Clinton won in 2016 by 27,202 votes). Newsweek has contacted the Democratic and Republican parties of Nevada via email for comment.

Nevada political analyst and columnist Jon Ralston, editor of The Nevada Independent, wrote in his daily early voting blog that Republicans had not had an early voting lead in Nevada at this stage of a presidential race since 2008. Then, the so-called "Reid Machine" (the coalition of voters who supported Democratic Senator Harry Reid) helped secure Democratic dominance.

Voters cast their ballots on the first day of early voting, Henderson, Nevada, October 19, 2024. Early voting in the state is signaling a warning sign for Kamala Harris. Steve Marcus/Las Vegas Sun via ASSOCIATED PRESS

While Democrats lead in mail voting (42.5 percent Democrats and 30.2 percent Republicans), Republicans are dominating with in-person early voting (27.8 percent Democrat and 51.9 percent Republicans), giving them the lead so far overall.

Ralston wrote that the early voting numbers "could signal serious danger for the Dems and for Kamala Harris here." He added that "the Clark firewall has all but collapsed," referring to the Democrats' reliance on a strong turnout in Clark County, Nevada's largest and most Democratic-leaning County.

Clark County, which houses over 1.4 million registered voters, or about 70 percent of the state's voters, is crucial for Harris and the Democratic Party.

Yet, with Republicans also making gains there, the early numbers are adding to concerns for Democrats. As of Monday, 66,560 Democrats had cast early ballots in Clark, compared to 62,108 Republicans, a lead of only 4,000 votes. Another 42,621 ballots have been cast by other voters.

Despite these early trends, many ballots still need to be cast before election day. With 11 more days of early voting ahead, only 12.4 percent of Nevada's nearly 2 million registered voters had cast their ballots.

With Harris holding only a razor-thin 0.3 percent lead over Donald Trump in the latest FiveThirtyEight polling average, every vote could make a difference.

While Ralston said it is "too soon to call it a trend," he added that, if Democrats fail to shore up support in Clark County, the party could face a serious challenge.

"Far from over, too early to call," Ralston said, but added, "A few more days like this, though, and the Democratic bed-wetting will reach epic proportions."