There's a small chance that a system in the southwestern Atlantic could form into Tropical Storm Sara in the next 48 hours.
The National Hurricane Center has been monitoring an area of disturbance for several days, though the chances of formation have lingered at around 20 percent for the next seven days. However, the most recent NHC update shows the potential storm's chances of forming in the next seven days have risen to 30 percent, and the chances it'll form within the next two days are now at 10 percent.
If it forms, the tropical storm will be named Sara. It would be the 18th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
"A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms east-northeast of the Leeward Islands," the most recent NHC update said.
It went on: "Portions of this system are forecast to move westward during the next day or so and could form a low pressure near the northern Leeward by Thursday. Afterward, some slow development of this system is possible during the latter part of the week while it moves generally westward over the southwestern Atlantic."
The path of a potential Tropical Storm Sara is uncertain, given the NHC hasn't made an official forecast for the possible storm. However, AccuWeather meteorologists anticipate that the storm will form between Friday and Saturday.
Newsweek reached out to AccuWeather by email for comment.
The strengthening system comes as Tropical Storm Rafael strengthens in the Caribbean, south of Cuba. Rafael has maximum sustained wind speeds of 70 mph, just a few miles per hour short of making it a Category 1 hurricane. The NHC expects the storm to become a hurricane later Tuesday night.
Rafael's path is expected to take it through Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, where further development is uncertain given strong wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures. However, should it remain organized, the storm could make landfall in Louisiana early next week, a historic occurrence as no named storm has made landfall in Louisiana during November.
Rafael is expected to maintain hurricane status through Friday morning, though the forecast into the weekend remains hazy. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the Florida Keys on Wednesday, as meteorologists warn of coastal flooding, heavy rain and tropical storm–force winds as the storm passes to the west.
"It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast," the NHC said in a recent update. "Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast."
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