On Monday, Oct. 20, there is a doubleheader of Monday Night Football games. The first one is this Ravens-Buccaneers game, which is scheduled for kickoff at 8 p.m. ET.
Despite this being a home game for the Bucs, they find themselves 3.5 point 'dogs in this one. After being a surprise upside team last year, these Bucs have picked up right where they left off last year, starting 4-2 on the season.
The Ravens, meanwhile, were the best team in the regular season last year and, after a slow start, have continued their dominance this year as well. They too head into this game with a 4-2 record.
For this article, however, we will be diving into our favorite player props for Ravens vs. Buccaneers on Monday Night Football.
Baker Mayfield o253.5 Pass. Yards (-113) FD
This is a number that Mayfield has gone over in only three of six games to start the season, but the over passing yards is the play in this one.
The reason his passing yards is a play tonight is due to the matchup against the Ravens, who are very stout against the run but are a pass funnel that can be thrown on.
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The Ravens defense has allowed both the fewest rushing yards per game (45) and the lowest yards per carry (2.9). They also have the second-lowest adjusted yards before contact per carry, per FantasyPoints, and DVOA's fourth-best rush defense.
With that said, they can be had through the air. They have allowed the most passing yards per game (298.2) in the league, including some monster individual performances, detailed below:
- Patrick Mahomes, Week 1: 291 passing yards
- Gardner Minshew, Week 2: 276 passing yards
- Dak Prescott, Week 3: 379 passing yards
- Joe Burrow, Week 5: 392 passing yards & 5 TDs
- Jayden Daniels, Week 6: 269 passing yards
So, through six games, five of the QBs have gone over this passing prop of 253.5 against Baltimore, and all of them went over their individual passing prop over/under as well.
On the other side of the field, the Bucs offense has an interesting trend in that it is very pass-heavy in general (fifth-highest neutral pass rate at 62.1 percent), but run-heavy on first down specifically (54.3 percent).
This has led the Bucs to pass 89.7 percent of the time on third down, which is the second-highest third down pass rate in the league.
So, the guess here is that the Bucs are going to continue to be run-heavy on first down, but with little success, which will lead them to pass at a high frequency on second and third downs, and have success doing so.
Baker Mayfield over 253.5 passing yards (-113): 1 Unit
Chris Godwin o72.5 Rec. Yards (-110) Bet365
If the expectation is that Bucs QB Baker Mayfield is going to throw for a bunch of yards, then those yards need to go somewhere, and our prediction is that WR Chris Godwin is going to be a big recipient of those yards.
After a quiet couple years after tearing his ACL late in the 2021 season, Godwin is having a resurgent 2024 season. He has gone over this 72.5 prop three times this season, including two games with over 100 yards.
Overall, he has 511 receiving yards on the year, which is the third-most in the NFL.
To go even deeper, Godwin has the most receiving first downs in the NFL, is tied for the second-most designed targets and has the sixth-most first-read targets as well.
Godwin has been a killer specifically against zone coverage, which is what the Ravens run just under 70 percent of the time.
Godwin is fifth in the league in yards per route run (3.44), and he is tied for the 10th-most targets per route run (0.30) against zone defenses.
Justice Hill 20+ Rec. Yards (+105) Fanatics
This is an absolutely phenomenal spot for Hill's receiving props, for a couple reasons.
Let's start with the matchup against the Bucs. They are a pass funnel and generally hard to run on, as they have allowed the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game.
With that said, you can pass on Tampa Bay, and running backs specifically have had a lot of success against the Bucs in the receiving game. Tampa has allowed 51.5 receiving yards per game to running backs (third-most) and 6.5 receptions (second-most) this year.
Here are some RB performances against them through the air:
- Austin Ekeler: Four receptions for 52 yards
- Brian Robinson Jr: Three receptions for 49 yards
- David Montgomery: Four receptions for 35 yards
- Jahmyr Gibbs: Seven receptions for 22 yards
- Javonte Williams: Four receptions for 29 yards
- Saquon Barkley: 32 receiving yards
- Alvin Kamara: Five receptions for 24 yards
While Hill is not the starting RB for the Ravens, of course, he does get a lot of work in the receiving game, and this is a great opportunity to fade recent results.
Hill has hit the 20 plus mark three time this season, but has missed it in two straight games. Of course, you need to look at the matchups of the last two games: the Bengals and the Commanders, two of the worst run defenses in the NFL.
As mentioned previously, this is a great matchup for Hill in the receiving game against the Bucs, who play zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, at 82.4 percent. They are one of only two teams that play zone more than 80 percent of the time. Hill is quietly a zone beater for the Ravens.
He has run the fifth-most routes on the team against zone coverage, but he has the second-best yards per route run at 2.42, and the most targets per route run.
So, after two quiet games in a row, now is the time to buy in on Hill's receiving props against the Bucs.
Justice Hill 20+ receiving yards (+105): 1 Unit
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