The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Tropical Storm Sara is expected to form later Thursday and bring life-threatening impacts to Central America as it continues along its path.
The NHC has been tracking the system, which is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Sara, for the past week. On Wednesday, the hurricane center began issuing advisories about the storm, which is currently named Tropical Depression Nineteen. The system has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, just shy of tropical storm strength.
"Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua," the NHC said in its most recent forecast, issued Thursday morning.
Tropical Storm Sara is forecast to slow down as it progresses, lingering along the northern Honduras coast and contributing to those life-threatening impacts, NHC Director Michael Brennan said in a Thursday morning briefing. Reached for comment, the NHC referred Newsweek to the briefing.
"The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico by early next week where there is a risk of strong winds," the NHC forecast said. "Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates."
Brennan said the storm will weaken to a tropical depression after moving inland across Belize and Guatemala.
However, other meteorological organizations, such as AccuWeather, previously warned that the storm could undergo rapid intensification to become a hurricane, or even a major hurricane, this weekend.
NHC meteorologists said it is still too soon to determine how the storm will affect the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida. Should it remain organized, the storm will arrive in that area in the middle of next week.
AccuWeather has already issued forecasts anticipating the storm's path and landfall in Florida. The most recent AccuWeather forecast shows Sara making landfall near Punta Gorda, Florida, on Wednesday night.
An AccuWeather report said wind shear is unlikely to tear the storm apart as it moves across the Gulf and water temperatures remain warm enough to foster hurricane development.
"Should the [rainstorm] become a hurricane, it would be the 12th of the season, which is a testament to the supercharged nature of the season, where the historical average is seven hurricanes," AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said in the report.
Earlier this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season would yield 17 to 25 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher.
"Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges," the forecast said.
In August, the NOAA updated its forecast to 17 to 24 named storms this season.
Once Sara forms, it will become the 18th named storm of the season. The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season runs through November 30.
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