There is around an even chance, according to most polls and forecasters, that 45th U.S. President Donald Trump will return to become its 47th. And he has a few ways of getting there through the electoral map.
Trump, the Republican nominee, will face off against Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, on Tuesday, November 5. More than half of registered voters—54 percent—plan to cast their ballot before election day, according to a Gallup poll in October.
The polls are tight across the seven battleground states in the 2024 presidential election. Namely, Pennsylvania (19 votes in the Electoral College), Georgia (16), North Carolina (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6).
The former president has put the border and immigration, the state of the American economy, and Harris's competence, among other issues, at the forefront of his campaign alongside his Republican running mate, Ohio's Senator J.D. Vance.
So what is the likeliest path to 270—the threshold for victory in the Electoral College—for Trump? Newsweek asked pollsters and strategists for their takes. Here's what they said.
Charles Franklin, Director, Marquette Law School Poll
For Trump, it is winning AZ, GA, and NC, and then picking up one of the Great Lakes states. Trump won WI, MI and PA in 2016. Biden won all three in 2020. So either outcome is possible this time.
It is also possible we see all the dominos fall in one direction, even if by tiny margins, in which case the electoral vote may not be the nail-biter it was in 2020. But which direction?
David Avella, Chairman, GOPAC
Win the competitive states of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania plus Maine 2nd Congressional District for 287 electoral votes.
Robert Blizzard, Founder, UpONEInsights
Trump's most efficient path is three steps: First, secure Florida. Second, sweep the four sunbelt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. Then, win one of the three blue wall states, with Pennsylvania potentially the easiest lift of the three.
Any Trump win in a blue wall state may be the straw that breaks Kamala's back. Her path is simply to secure traditional DEM states like New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Virginia and then sweep the blue wall states if she doesn't pull off a sunbelt win.
A Trump win may be the result of a slightly changed coalition, winning large majorities of white working class Americans that are low propensity voters combined with an increasing share of Black men and Hispanic voters in the sunbelt states.
Nicole Schlinger, Founder & President, CampaignHQ
There are multiple paths to victory for Trump, but we should be looking at places where Harris has remained very competitive, if not maintained the lead. Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, if those go Trump, the Democrats' firewall has fallen.
John Zogby, Senior Partner, John Zogby Strategies
If Trump wins any of the Blue Wall, Harris is in trouble. She then has to win any one of Southern Rim and she could do it.
Josh Clinton, Co-Director of the Vanderbilt Poll
For Trump: Wins one of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (plus AZ, NC, and GA).
John McLaughlin, CEO and Partner, McLaughlin & Associates
President Trump's most likely path to victory is voters who want change and do NOT want another four years like the last four years.
Seven in 10 voters think the country is on the wrong track. The majority of voters disapprove of the job that Biden and Harris have done. Voters do NOT want for more years of high prices, high taxes, more illegal immigration, higher crime and endless wars.
These issues are President Trump's path to victory and will enable him to build a majority Heartland voting coalition of Sun Belt and Rust Belt voters.
It will enable him to win decisively in Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. There could even be some surprise upsets in Minnesota, Virginia, New Mexico and New Hampshire.
Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, US Public Affairs, Ipsos
Donald Trump is trying to mobilize the majority of Americans who feel like the institutions and elites of America have left them behind, a task made easier with 30 years of conservative media feeding that anger.
If he is able to hold onto his 2020 base and eat into Democratic advantages with Black and Hispanic voters, that will be enough to build a winning vote.
David Paleologos, Director, Suffolk University Political Research Center
Pennsylvania.
Dr. Richard Groper, Department of Political Science, California State University
The surest way to victory is to win one of the Blue wall states and the so-called sun belt battleground states (AZ, GA, NC)—these are all states that Trump won in 2016 and that usually vote Republican.
Winning all or most of the blue wall states is a more difficult proposition because they usually vote Dem. If Trump wins Nevada (a state that usually votes Dem), he has six more electoral college votes toward victory.
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