With less than two weeks until the election, a new Emerson College poll shows former President Donald Trump closing in on Vice President Kamala Harris in New Hampshire, where her lead has narrowed to just three points, now within the margin of error.
The Emerson poll, conducted October 21-23 among 915 likely New Hampshire voters, shows Harris at 50 percent and Trump at 47 percent, marking one of the state's closest polls this cycle. The survey has a margin of error of three percentage points, with New Hampshire's four electoral votes at stake.
Although the Granite State has backed Democrats in seven of the last eight presidential elections, its consistently competitive margins make it a sleeper battleground, and a potential outlier in typically blue New England.
Trump's numbers in the Emerson poll surpass his 2020 performance, when he received 45 percent of the vote compared to Joe Biden's 53 percent. Harris, while still leading, is underperforming compared to Biden, with notable declines among male and independent voters.
"Harris' margin among women is similar to that of Biden in 2020. However, male voters have shifted about two points toward Trump," noted Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
"Harris is also underperforming Biden's 2020 support among independents, leading them by 13 points, while Biden led by about twice that."
A majority of New Hampshire voters (53 percent) view Harris favorably, while 47 percent view her unfavorably. For Trump, the numbers are reversed: 47 percent view him favorably, while 53 percent view him unfavorably.
The economy in voters' top concern, with 34 percent of the state's voters ranking it as the most important issue influencing their choice. Housing affordability followed at 26 percent, and threats to democracy ranked third at 10 percent.
Polls in other battleground states are similarly close. Emerson's recent North Carolina poll shows Trump leading by two points, while Harris holds a one-point lead in Wisconsin, highlighting the competitive landscape nationwide.
Recent national polling suggests the 2024 presidential election is a deadlock going into the final days. In the last two weeks, electoral college predictions have shifted toward a likely Trump victory. For example, polling expert Nate Silver's current forecast gives Trump a 53.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College compared to Harris' 46.6 percent.
FiveThirtyEight's forecast has also tilted in Trump's favor, showing him with a 51 percent chance of winning the election compared to Harris' 49 percent. Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics' forecast currently projects Trump winning in every battleground state. If that proves accurate, it would be the closest thing to a landslide election for the Republican, giving him 312 Electoral College votes to Harris' 227.
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