TSR projects 7 Atlantic hurricanes, 3 major storms in extended range 2025 forecast

The first long-range forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was released today, with Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) projecting there could be 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes next year, which would be roughly aligned with the 30-year norm.

While these extended range forecasts are typically taken with a grain of salt, they provide some overview of the expected climatological factors that could become drivers of hurricane activity for the next season in the Atlantic basin.

Tropical Storm Risk said, “TSR predicts that North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2025 will see activity close to the 1991-2020 30-year norm. This outlook has large uncertainties and forecast skill at this lead time is low.”

TSR forecasts 15 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, with a forecast for an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 129.

The forecaster currently sees a 34% probability that the ACE index will be in the upper tercile (greater than 156), a 48% likelihood the ACE index will be in the middle tercile (from 75 to 156), and an 18% chance the ACE index will be in the lower tercile (below 75).

Explaining the climatological conditions that could influence the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, TSR highlighted El Nino / La Nina expectations and also a belief that sea surface temperatures may be above average again in certain areas of the ocean where tropical storms develop in the Atlantic and where they get their fuel.

“The factors influencing the TSR extended forecast for 2025 North Atlantic hurricane activity to be close to the 1991-2020 climatology are the anticipated near-neutral ENSO conditions through summer and autumn 2025, and for warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region and Caribbean Sea,” TSR said.

But qualified this by reiterating that, “It should be noted that uncertainties at this lead time are large and the forecast skill is historically low at this lead time.”

It’s worth noting that a recent study from Euler ILS Partners and Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) highlighted that the July forecast, just at the start of the hurricane season, can provide a useful input to portfolio and hedging decision making for insurance-linked securities (ILS) funds.

However, these long and extended range forecasts, such as this one today, are more informational at this very early stage.