The U.S. egg shortage and resulting higher prices could worsen by the time the holiday season arrives, then continue into the new year.
Egg production dropped by 2.6 percent in September and 1.6 percent in August, compared to the same months last year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in a report released on November 15.
The projection for egg production in the fourth quarter of 2024 is down from 5 million dozen to 1.98 million dozen. The adjustment came after October bird flu outbreaks across Utah, Washington state and Oregon resulted in the loss of 2.8 million birds.
An outbreak of bird flu hit the U.S. in February 2022, affecting almost 110 million birds in 49 states, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's most recent report published on Thursday.
The American Egg Board, which markets on behalf of egg farmers, estimates that about 23 million hens have been lost to bird flu this year.
"The impact of this on America's egg farmers has been incredibly tough," American Egg Board President and CEO Emily Metz told Newsweek. "Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) is absolutely devastating to those farmers—these birds are their livelihoods. Our supply is tighter than normal due to HPAI, and in some states more than others."
Once affected flocks are lost, it takes a minimum of 20 weeks "from the hatching of a new flock until they are mature enough to produce eggs [five months]," poultry scientist Todd Applegate told Newsweek.
"This would be several months longer to address disposing of infected materials and birds, cleaning and disinfecting of the affected farm," he added.
Other reasons for the egg shortage include smaller flocks of laying hens than last year, high feed costs and input prices and a lower average lay rate (the number of eggs produced per hen) than previous years.
The shortages are having an impact on prices, with the daily New York wholesale price for large eggs up 20 cents from September and $1.84 from last October, the USDA said.
By the end of October, which saw a period of slightly more than a week in which egg prices increased by 20 cents or more per day, the prices averaged at $4.46.
"Egg farmers are working around the clock to ensure their customers and consumers have every kind of egg they need," Metz said. "Egg farmers know demand for eggs is particularly strong during the holiday season, and they will continue to produce the eggs and egg products their customers need."
It comes as winter has hit, a time when certain kinds of birds, which can carry different variants of avian flu, start migrating south.
Shorebirds, seabirds and waterfowl are often the culprits of carrying different strains, especially as they seldom show signs of illness, veterinary epidemiologist Victoria Hall told the New Scientist.
"And they mix strains as they all gather together in migratory groups, and then they take off again and spread it," Hall said.
For example, December is when mallard ducks, which have high avian flu case numbers, start making their way south and fly over farms in North America, according to Reuters, which was the migration path of the species earlier this year.
The USDA foresees the egg shortage continuing into early next year, lower year-over-year production for much of the first half of 2025.
"While no one can predict the future, our farmers continue to get better with experience fighting this disease, and our farms are recovering faster," Metz said. "Egg farmers are innovators, and they are absolutely doing everything they can to keep their birds safe and keep those eggs coming.
"HPAI has been a challenge for U.S. egg farms since 2022, and we remain hopeful that rigorous on-farm disease prevention efforts will prevent further spread of HPAI through winter and the spring migration and ensure farms can recover and resume full production."
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