US Election 'Nostradamus' Slams Donald Trump's Mass Deportation Plan

Historian Allan Lichtman has hit out at former President Donald Trump's mass deportation plans, which would result in millions removed from the country, and he told Newsweek that most would only be guilty of "paper crimes."

Immigration is among the top issues for American voters as election day looms close, with early voting already underway.

The mass deportation policy, announced as a core element of the GOP's 2024 immigration policy would see many millions of undocumented or illegal immigrants removed. The Republican presidential candidate has also pledged to deport some legal immigrants, such as the million-plus who were admitted into the U.S. under humanitarian parole or were allowed to stay in the U.S. through Temporary Protected Status.

Donald Trump speaks at the U.S.-Mexico border on August 22, 2024 south of Sierra Vista, Arizona. Historian Allan Lichtman has hit out at Trump's mass deportation plans. Rebecca Noble/Getty Images

During on of his regular livestreams on his YouTube channel, posted yesterday, Lichtman, who is frequently critical of Trump, described the scheme as "a horrendous idea" that would be "disastrous" for the American people.

He added that it would "essentially turn America into a police state, completely contradicting the so-called professed Republican conservative idea of limited government and individual freedom."

The American University professor also said the cost of such a proposal would be "astronomical."

Citing a study from the American Immigration Council (AIC), Lichtman said the plan would cost the taxpayer $968 billion over the course of more than a decade.

AIC's report also said that mass deportation would reduce the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by 4.2 to 6.8 percent, something Lichtman also noted in the video.

"That may not sound like a lot," he said, "but it's enough to push the economy into disaster."

"And that doesn't include the tax losses," Lichtman continued.

He went on to say that, per the AIC report, undocumented immigrant households paid $47 billion in federal taxes, $29 billion in state and local taxes, and contributed $6 billion to Medicare.

The construction, agriculture, and hospitality sectors would also suffer labor shortages as a result of the scheme, Lichtman said, citing the report.

In an email to Newsweek, the Lichtman said: "I would add that undocumented immigrants are if anything guilty of a paper crime. They haven't actually harmed anyone by being undocumented.

"For most of our history there was no such status of illegal immigration. They have mightily contributed to the economy and are far more law-abiding than native/born Americans."

Newsweek has also contacted the Trump campaign for comment via email.

Lichtman earned the moniker "Nostradamus," after the French reputed seer of the Renaissance, for his impressive track record predicting the outcomes of presidential elections since 1984, though his methods are not without their critics.

His system hinges on 13 keys, all true or false statements, that evaluate the standing of the incumbent party based on a range of issues including the economy, domestic politics, and foreign policy.

Lichtman has officially forecast that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election, based on this prediction model.

The 13 keys, as set out by the historian in a 2012 article for the Social Education journal, are these:

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbent seeking reelection: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

If six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the election. Should five or fewer be false, it is expected to win.

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