Vikings Deliver Good and Bad News on Sam Darnold’s Future

Getty

Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold

The Minnesota Vikings have stayed tight-lipped about Sam Darnold‘s future, but offensive coordinator Wes Phillips made their feelings on Darnold’s upcoming free agency clear after the best game of his career.

Darnold reasserted himself into the league’s MVP conversation after throwing for 347 yards and five touchdowns in a 42-21 win over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 14 — a performance that earned him NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors.

He’s led the Vikings to an 11-2 start to the season and a virtual lock to make the playoffs. At 27 years old, Darnold has fully revived his career after spending last season as a backup.

Head coach Kevin O’Connell has waxed the well-trodden clichés that Darnold must keep his feet in the present and let his play determine his future.

But according to Phillips, Darnold doesn’t have to worry about that anymore; he’s proven his worth as a bonafide starter.

However, the Vikings are well aware his market in free agency may price them out.

“We all know that Sam is gonna be a sought-after type of guy from wherever that may be,” Phillips said, per the Minneapolis Star Tribune. “Whatever his future ends up being, I know all of us in this building are gonna be happy for him, no matter where that ends up being. I don’t think he has to worry about that anymore.

“The worry might’ve been, OK, this might be my opportunity to play. He’s past all that. He’s proven the doubters, and he’s proven that he can play in this league.”

By signing a one-year, $10 million deal in the offseason, Darnold agreed to compete for a starting job in 2024 and use the year as an exhibition of his talents. The expectation was J.J. McCarthy would take the reins as the Vikings’ franchise quarterback next year.

However, Darnold has made the decision to part ways with him more complicated in Minnesota, reaching a ceiling that nobody could have predicted.

Sam Darnold Has Cracked Open Vikings Franchise Tag Chatter

GettySam Darnold #14 of the Minnesota Vikings.

While there’s an argument to be made that the Vikings have elevated Darnold, he’s also proving too valuable to let walk out the door.

Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer appraised the potential paths the Vikings could venture down with Darnold’s price skyrocketing. One executive suggested the franchise tag that would keep Darnold under team control for one more year.

“To work to ascertain that, I asked a few execs Sunday night where they saw Darnold’s market. One guessed he’d command a three-year, $110 million contract, with more than $40 million guaranteed. Another said he thought the Vikings should consider franchise tagging him, even though the price on that projects to top $41 million, and that he’d probably get $40 million per year if he hit the open market,” Breer wrote in a December 8 column.

Darnold would not be fond of the franchise tag, which would limit his bargaining power over his future. He’s coming off a career year and will want to maximize his return by playing the field in free agency.

A tag and trade would complicate matters, but there is a world where the Vikings, Darnold and his future team could all be satisfied.

The $41 million tag for the 2025 season could be a sticking point for many teams that would like to negotiate a better deal on their terms. However, they could move that money into the future by signing Darnold to a new deal after the trade.

Vikings Cannot Repeat 2024 Season by Re-Signing Darnold

GettyVikings quarterback Sam Darnold

It may seem counterintuitive, but the Vikings would have a hard time recapturing their 11-2 run with Darnold so far if they re-signed him for the 2025 season.

Darnold should command a deal worth north of $30 million a year — and that’s a modest projection.

Meanwhile, the Vikings have many holes they need to fill, primarily through free agency with only three picks in the upcoming draft.

They have to either re-sign Aaron Jones or find a new starting running back. They are also poised to lose all three of their starting cornerbacks and safety Cam Bynum to free agency. Harrison Smith is also in the final year of his contract and could retire.

Those are just the headliners, as several other rotational veteran defenders are playing on expiring contracts and need to be replaced.

While Minnesota has the sixth-most effective cap space ($63.2 million) for next season, Darnold would take up roughly half of that cap alone — a rehashing of the roster-building limitations they felt with Kirk Cousins for years.

Ultimately, the Vikings made Justin Jefferson the highest-paid non-quarterback in the league so they could elevate a quarterback on a rookie-scale deal, leaving more cap room to make meaningful roster fortifications elsewhere.

Re-signing Darnold would defeat the years of work the new regime has done to free up cap space and reload in free agency.