Vikings Predicted to Make $160 Million QB Move

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Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell looks on against the Detroit Lions.

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold may have fallen flat in the first postseason appearance of his career, but the 2024 season should be considered Year 1 for the 27-year-old quarterback who reinvented himself in Minnesota.

Darnold shed many of the bad habits that plagued his career previously. They may have resurfaced when the lights were the brightest, but that doesn’t discredit the Pro Bowl-caliber body of work that defined the majority of career rebirth.

The 27-year-old quarterback threw for the third most yards, tied for the second-most touchdowns, posted the sixth-highest quarterback rating, and led the second-most game-winning drives in a single season in franchise history.

While Darnold is responsible for the fatal flaws of the Vikings’ playoff loss to the Los Angeles Rams — in particular, a playoff record 9 sacks taken — further film study has shown that the offensive line bears a significant share of the blame.

For that reason, ESPN’s Ben Solak said he believes the Vikings will run it back with Darnold in a big way and potentially trade J.J. McCarthy for draft picks to fortify the rest of the roster.

“I really, truly believe the Vikings will extend Darnold. They have the room for something in the Daniel Jones neighborhood — four years, $160 million is probably optimal, if they can get Darnold to sign that before another team in the free market offers him a whale of a deal,” Solak wrote on January 20. “Depending on the size of the contract, they’ll either keep McCarthy or quietly look to trade him ahead of a bad quarterback draft class and see if a needy team takes the bait.”

Vikings Can Follow Chiefs’ Path With Sam Darnold

GettyVikings quarterback Sam Darnold

Even Patrick Mahomes is made mortal by poor pass protection.

In his lone Super Bowl loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2021, the Kansas City Chiefs surrendered a 55.4% pressure rate to the Buccaneers. The offensive line allowed 30 pressures in the 31-9 loss where Mahomes was held without a touchdown and a 52.3 passer rating.

The Chiefs did the right thing after watching Mahomes crumble on the biggest stage of all.

They traded a first-round pick for Pro Bowl left tackle Orlando Brown.

They offered the largest contract to a guard in NFL history to Joe Thuney, who has earned three Pro Bowl nods since then.

They drafted Creed Humphries and Trey Smith, both of whom have gone on to become Pro Bowlers.

See the trend?

The Vikings are positioned to invest in the offensive line with the sixth-most cap space to spend in free agency this year. They don’t need a full overhaul, either. They have Pro Bowl-caliber tackles in Brian O’Neill and Christian Darrisaw.

But the interior needs work.

Kevin O’Connell made a pointed comment that the interior pass protection needs to be better after the season-ending loss to Los Angeles.

“There’s no question. We’ve got to find a way to solidify the interior of the pocket starting first and foremost,” O’Connell said. “There could be a thousand excuses made, but for me, it’s the foundation of the interior of the pocket that we’re going to have to take a long look at. I thought those guys battled. That’s a good, young, fast athletic front. Really when you look at it over the course of the entirety of the season we lost to two football teams and both of them were able to do some similar things against us via pressure, via some four down pressure, non-pressure and non-blitz pressure.”

Vikings Risk McCarthy for Win-Now Window With Darnold

GettyJ.J. McCarthy #9 and Sam Darnold #14 of the Minnesota Vikings participate in a drill during training camp.

The biggest factor in the Vikings’ decision at quarterback will be whether they believe McCarthy is ready to take over.

The 22-year-old is inexperienced compared to his fellow rookie quarterbacks. He threw a total of 654 passes in two years as a starter at Michigan. Jayden Daniels had 1,438 pass attempts in his college career and Michael Penix Jr. nearly reached 1,700.

It’d be foolish to question O’Connell, who has gotten the most out of every Vikings quarterback under his guidance, christening McCarthy as a “franchise quarterback” after watching his growth before his injury last summer.

However, the Vikings captured lightning in a bottle and may want to push their chips in on Darnold.

It’s feasible they can re-sign in-house free agents and sign several difference-makers while paying Darnold a lucrative contract with lighter cap hits in the first couple of seasons. They would spend less at quarterback by signing Darnold to a long-term contract instead of the one-year, $41 million franchise tag.

But that comes at the cost of future cap space and deferring the McCarthy plan.