Vikings’ Sam Darnold Set for Eye-Popping New Contract

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Sam Darnold #14 of the Minnesota Vikings warms up before facing the Green Bay Packers.

Despite coming off a clunker to close the 2024 regular season, Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold is poised to land a lucrative contract after leading a 14-win season for the playoff-bound Vikings.

The midseason expectations for Darnold would be a contract on par with Baker Mayfield‘s three-year, $100 million deal he signed with a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that went 9-8 and won a playoff game with him a season ago.

Darnold has exceeded most of Mayfield’s marks from a year ago, begging the question of what Darnold’s price in free agency could be.

The answer could be more, a lot more.

Sam Darnold’s Value in Free Agency Worthy of $218 Million Deal: Spotrac

Spotrac updated its projection of Darnold’s value as the No. 1 pending free agent this upcoming offseason. Based on Darnold’s performance and recent contracts awarded for comparable quarterback seasons, Spotrac projected Darnold’s next contract to be a four-year, $218.7 million deal.

The $54.7 million average annual value of that deal would rank fifth at the position, a shade below Joe Burrow, Jordan Love and Trevor Lawrence‘s $55 million-a-year deals and above Tua Tagovailoa ($53.1 million a year). Dak Prescott‘s contract boasts the highest yearly value at $60 million a season.

It’s a steep price to pay and debatable whether several of the quarterbacks at that rate is a smart investment. But that’s the price of top-five quarterback play in today’s NFL, and Darnold is on the fringe of that territory just 17 games into his tenure with the Vikings.

He finished the regular season fifth in passing yards (4,319) and passing touchdowns (35) and had the sixth-highest passer rating (102.5).

One season isn’t enough to entirely erase Darnold’s past in the league. Many fans took to social media to react to the projected contract, and while Darnold was widely praised, top-five quarterback money is a bit too rich for even Vikings fans who have reveled in his career renaissance.

Darnold can push back against that notion, starting with a Wild Card Weekend win against the Los Angeles Rams on Monday.

Darnold’s Franchise Tag Wouldn’t Sink Vikings’ 2025 Roster

Considering Darnold’s potential value in free agency, the $41.3 million franchise tag is looking more reasonable than once expected.

It wouldn’t be the same as the one-year, $10 million deal Darnold signed last offseason, but the Vikings would be paying roughly the same amount at quarterback as they did this season.

While Minnesota only has $8.2 million of cap space sunk for their existing quarterback room, the Vikings did have to pay Kirk Cousins a remaining $28.5 million in dead cap this season as well. They essentially operated with $36 million spent at the quarterback position this season — $5 million off the cost of tagging Darnold for next year.

While the $41.3 million tag will count entirely against the 2025 salary cap, the Vikings can structure their upcoming free-agent class contract to be more affordable in their first year — a common decision in front offices given the annual growth of the cap.

This would buy the Vikings another year to evaluate 21-year-old J.J. McCarthy and keep expectations in the building high by running it back with Darnold.

The Vikings’ inevitable decision between the two can be pushed to next year with little harm done to the team’s financial future and roster-building.