Week 10 NFL MVP Odds: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes Lead Race

2024 NFL MVP Best Bet: Lamar Jackson

Best odds as of Nov. 6: +300 (available at FanDuel, bet365)

Let's not overthink this one.

Yes, No. 8 in purple and black is a chalky bet.

That doesn't make wagering on him right now a bad idea, though.

Jackson, who won this award in 2019 and 2023, is a strong contender in his second year alongside Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Baltimore was unstoppable in the first year of Monken's tenure as OC and somehow, this offense looks even better this year.

Derrick Henry's upside in this running game was clear when he signed this offseason, but he's blown even the highest expectations out of the water. Henry is averaging a career-best 6.3 yards per carry, and his effectiveness has been absurd considering he leads the league with 168 rushing attempts.

We could go on and on about Henry, but we highlight his success while breaking down Jackson's (not Henry's) MVP odds because of the effect the Baltimore workhorse has had on Jackson and this offense.

Thanks in large part to a Baltimore ground game that has gone from "merely" league-best to historically dominant, Jackson has dramatically improved on the output that allowed him to take 49 of 50 NFL MVP votes a year ago.

Lamar Jackson Statistical Comparison: 2023 vs. 2024

Below are Jackson's 2023 and 2024 basic passing and rushing numbers side-by-side:

Jackson's numbers are absurd, and even if he slows down (barring his production falling off a cliff), do we really see anyone overtaking him?

Given the way the Baltimore offense is cooking (this offense just hung 41 points on Denver's outstanding defense), I don't think so.

There's good reason to believe Jackson's best games of the 2024 campaign are ahead of him, too.

For one thing, his three best games of the year in terms of YPA all came in the last four weeks. Veteran tight end Mark Andrews has come alive recently after a slow start.

Additionally, newly signed WR Diontae Johnson gives the Ravens passing attack yet another dynamic route runner to go along with second-year star Zay Flowers and deep threat Rashod Bateman, who is averaging 17.9 yards per catch.

Despite his status as the favorite, at as long as +300 to win MVP, Jackson offers more value than anyone given the way things are trending in Baltimore right now.

2024 NFL MVP Best Longshot Bet: Matthew Stafford

Best odds as of Nov. 6: +10000 (FanDuel)

If an underdog you like is available at +10000 (meaning a $100 bet would yield a payout of $10,000), that team or player is well worth a flier.

Unless Jackson gets hurt and melts down over the second half of the season, it's probably going to take something incredible for anyone else to challenge him for this award.

What Stafford, who turns 37 in February, will have accomplished if he can get the 4-4 Rams into the playoffs would certainly qualify as "incredible." This team was largely written off before this season (L.A.'s preseason win total was just 8.5), and that was before it started 1-4 while suffering one injury after another in September.

But Sean McVay's team has won three in a row to reach .500, and it's in the thick of the race in the NFC West, where the 5-4 Cardinals are currently in first place.

Don't be surprised if Stafford vaults up the oddsboards if the Rams -- who are now much healthier along the offensive line and at wide receiver than they were early this year -- keep winning.

L.A. hosts the 6-2 Eagles in Week 12 on Sunday Night Football in what could be a pivotal showcase game, but three of its next four opponents are the 2-6 Dolphins (at home on Monday Night Football in Week 10), the 2-7 Patriots and the 2-7 Saints.

Given that upcoming schedule, there's a real chance the Rams will be 7-5 or better going into the home stretch of the season, which will include matchups with the Bills, Jets and all three of their NFC West rivals.

Stafford's numbers to date this year hardly scream, "MVP."

He'll nevertheless be a real factor in the MVP conversation if he can get hot over the next two months. And with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back in the mix, plus a finally-healthy offensive line, a torrid finish by Stafford and this offense over their final nine games shouldn't shock anyone.

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