Early voting for the general election began in Florida on Monday, and polls suggest Donald Trump is comfortably ahead.
Polling has shown the former president consistently ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in October and September by margins of between 1 percent and 7 percent.
However, one recent poll by The New York Times/ Siena College, which is considered to be the country's most accurate pollster, gave Trump his largest lead yet at 13 points.
Nate Cohn, chief political analyst for The New York Times, noted that the poll was a staggeringly large lead for Trump and an outlier compared to other state polls.
However, Cohn noted that Trump has had a "considerable lead among Florida's voters" throughout their polling this year. Therefore, Trump's 13-point lead "probably isn't a fluke simply attributable to random chance," he said.
Another recent poll by the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab gave Trump a lead of 10 points, with 53 percent support to Harris' 43 percent.
Other polls give Trump slightly more modest leads, such as 6 points from Redfield & Wilson Strategies and 4 from Marist College.
While some polls have momentarily shown Harris gaining ground in the state, no poll has shown her leading Trump.
Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
Third-party candidates Jill Stein and Chase Oliver are also on the ballot in Florida, but most recent polling of the state looks at a two-way match-up between Harris and Trump. The polls that do include the other candidates tend to give them zero or a maximum of 1 percentage point.
Florida was once considered a swing state but in recent years has become increasingly red. Trump won the state in 2020 by a 3.4-point margin, improving on his 2016 win by 1.2 points.
Beyond the presidential candidates, there are six amendments to the state constitution on the ballot in Florida, including the right to abortion, the legalization of recreational or personal use of marijuana and a proposal to require school district board members to be elected in a partisan election rather than a nonpartisan vote.
A survey from the University of North Florida's Public Opinion Research Lab, released on Monday, shows 66 percent approval for the amendment on marijuana and 60 percent support for the right to abortion amendment—the minimum needed to pass.
However, a poll by The New York Times/Siena College published this month showed that the abortion amendment could be on track to fall short. The amendment in support of restoring abortion rights is by far the most contentious and has been the center of a fierce political debate in the state.
Florida enacted stringent abortion laws last year, banning the procedure after six weeks of pregnancy.
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