Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are hoping to win Wisconsin and secure the state's 10 electoral votes.
Wisconsin is no stranger to tight presidential races, with the margin of victory falling below a percentage point in the 2020, 2016, 2004, and 2000 elections—and this year was no different.
Both Trump and Harris competed hard for the electoral votes at stake, making frequent stops in the Badger State—including several in the vote-rich Milwaukee, Madison and Green Bay areas.
With 84 percent of votes cast, Trump was leading Harris with 50.9 percent of the vote, according to projections from CNN.
Which Presidential Candidate Did Wisconsin Voters Pick in 2016 and 2020?
Wisconsin was one of the three key "blue wall" states—alongside Michigan and Pennsylvania—that narrowly swung to Trump in 2016 after nearly 30 years of supporting Democratic presidential candidates.
Four years later, Joe Biden reclaimed all three states for the Democrats, winning Wisconsin by a margin of about 20,000 votes, or 0.63 percent, out of nearly 3.3 million votes cast.
As of October 1, 2024, Wisconsin had 3,555,545 active registered voters. The state does not collect information on the gender, race, or political party affiliation of registered voters.
What Were the Polling Averages in Wisconsin?
According to FiveThirtyEight's model in late October 2024, Kamala Harris had held a lead in Wisconsin, with 49 percent of the projected vote compared to Donald Trump's 48 percent, giving her a 1-point advantage. This margin had increased from earlier in the month when the race was nearly tied.
Nate Silver's popular model also indicated that both candidates were virtually tied, with each projected to receive 48.5 percent of the vote. Silver's projections initially showed Harris with a slight 0.7-point edge, but the race tightened in the following weeks, shifting to a narrow 1.2-point advantage for Trump, indicating momentum for the Republican candidate as Election Day neared.
High Prices, Abortion and Immigration Among Biggest Issues in Wisconsin
In the lead-up to the 2024 election, Wisconsin voters focused on several key issues that redefined the political landscape. Economic concerns, particularly rising inflation and the escalating cost of living, took center stage, with many residents feeling the pinch in their daily expenses. Abortion rights also emerged as a pivotal issue, driven by recent legislative shifts that fueled intense debates over reproductive freedoms and individual rights.
Immigration policy further shaped voter sentiment, as discussions on border security and the economic effects of immigration remained at the forefront of the state's political discourse. Additionally, a proposed statewide ballot measure to amend the state constitution to ban noncitizens from voting in state elections added another layer to the discussion.
As of October 31, 2024, Wisconsin has seen a significant surge in early voting ahead of the November 5 general election. The Wisconsin Elections Commission reported that 1,224,779 voters had already cast their ballots. This total includes 705,326 in-person absentee ballots and 519,453 absentee ballots returned by mail. Notably, the number of in-person absentee ballots has surpassed the 2020 total of 651,422, indicating increased voter engagement this election cycle.
Both Campaigns Intensely Rallied in Wisconsin
Wisconsin became a battleground in the 2024 presidential campaign, with both Harris and Trump fiercely competing for its 10 crucial electoral votes. Trump's whirlwind tour across Milwaukee, Waunakee, and Juneau in early October echoed his 2016 strategy, aiming to capture last-minute support.
Harris, equally relentless, visited the state at least eight times, reaching out to urban Milwaukee and conservative strongholds like Ripon with messages tailored to Wisconsin's diverse communities.
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